Parma vs Lecce Predictions & Tips

Parma may have kicked off 2020 with a 5-0 defeat, but they have a great season to look back on so far. The hosts have moved into seventh, which has been enough for European football over the last few years in Italy. However, will the hosts be able to stay in the mix for a European place, or will they fall short?

They round off the Serie A weekend with this clash against Lecce on Monday night, which could define the New Year for Parma. Will they kick on from here and secure a top-seven place in a competitive field? Or will they slip up and allow the relegation strugglers to pick up a victory on their travels?

A 10-point Gulf

This is a bunched Serie A table, with a lot of sides packed into the middle. The top five seem set, but Parma went into the weekend only 10 points clear of fourth-bottom Brescia. The hosts were only 11 clear of the drop and just 13 above last place, so nearly three-quarters of Serie A aren’t on secure ground. Tough seasons for Napoli, AC Milan and Fiorentina – who all trail Parma – show how close things are.

However, in a tight league, it’s important to have a player who can make the difference. For Parma, that’s Dejan Kulusevski. With two assists and a goal, Kulusevski has been directly involved in each of Parma’s last three Serie A goals: he’s been involved in more home goals this campaign than any other Parma player (six: two goals, four assists). He’s Juve-bound in a £35 million deal, but he’s led Parma’s European push this season.

Lecce’s Struggles to Continue

The visitors are in a tough position, sinking towards the bottom three after losing three on the spin. They have been beaten by relegation rivals Udinese and Brescia of late, while the visitors have lost half their Serie A games overall this season. They head into this one with another defeat likely, while Parma’s best results have come against the bottom eight, winning four of seven clashes so far.

Among the sides they have faced at least 20 times in Serie A, only against Bari (70%) do Parma have a higher win percentage than against Lecce (50% – 11 out of 22). Meanwhile, Lecce have won only one of their 11 away games against Parma in Serie A (D4 L6): a 1-0 win in February 2011. We therefore expect the hosts to pick up another victory, with Lecce out of form.

Lecce have been able to find the net in 78% of their away games this season, while the visitors have also seen 78% of their trips finish with over 2.5 goals scored. That’s partly down to their high-scoring defeats, as Lecce have conceded three or more in each of their away defeats this season. We can see Parma pulling off a big win here, as Lecce have lost by at least two goals in each of their away losses. As a result, a 3-1 home win is our pick here.