Peterborough vs Rochdale Predictions

After a rocky start to the new campaign, Darren Ferguson’s men have started to tick along nicely. Having won three on the bounce in the league, Posh will be looking to get the better of Rochdale, though the visitors, who’ve lost just once this term, are no mugs, so it won’t be easy for the hosts.

There’s been lots to like about the way in which Peterborough have gone about their business over the last month or so. Prior to picking up their first win of the campaign on match-day four, Posh had struggled to get going slightly, but they now seem to have got the hang of not only preventing their opponents from creating, but of offering a sizeable threat going forward.

Ferguson’s men have scored a very pleasing nine goals in their last three. They’ve kept a clean sheet in each of those three. Posh have also bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in three out three, creating an average of 1.34 and surrendering an average of 0.77. Ferguson’s men have also done a solid job of outshooting their opponents in recent matches, as they’ve registered 41 shots, 16 of which hit the target, in their last three games. They’ve conceded 27 during that time, only one of which troubled keeper Christ Pym.

Rochdale have also done well of late, or rather they’ve done well this season overall. Under the stewardship of Brian Barry-Murphy, Dale have become a useful side, one that plays nice-looking football and one that is also tough to beat. Saturday’s visitors have lost just one of their six league games.

For all they’ve knocked the ball about well at times, Rochdale haven’t been amazingly effective in the final third, scoring just 1.33 goals per game, but they’ve done a good job of doing more in the final third than their opponents, as they conceded an average of just 0.83.

Based on what we’ve seen from the pair so far, this is no easy game to call, so it’s reasonably tough to see why the hosts are so hotly fancied in the betting. Admittedly, in their current form, in front of their own fans, Posh deserve to be favourites, though the early market seems to have overdone it slightly.

At the prices, ‘Rochdale +0.75 Asian Handicap’ stands out as a bet that represents value. Peterborough have impressed of late, though results have perhaps showed them to be more powerful than they are. After all, the hosts are averaging only 0.86 expected goals for at home, which is no more than the visitors on the road. In fact, it’s a good bit less. Moreover, they also have a reasonably poor expected goal difference of +0.13. On their travels, Rochdale currently have an average expected goal difference of +0.29. Simply put, Dale, who’ve shipped just one goal in their last four league games, look to have a better chance of taking something from the game than the odds suggest and thus backing them to do so is worthwhile.

As touched on above, the pair look reasonably evenly matched, though the hosts look to have less chance of being successful than the odds would have us believe, so a small punt on a 1-0 win for the visitors appeals at the prices.