Poland vs Estonia Predictions

• Poland have won four of their last six home games either 1-0 or 2-0
• Estonia have conceded exactly two goals in four of their last five internationals
• Estonia have failed to score in their last six competitive (non-friendly) internationals

Poland can put Estonia in their place

Poland should make light work of the lowest-ranked Euro 2024 play-off semi-finalists when they entertain Estonia in Warsaw on Thursday.

Michal Probierz’s men finished third in Group E behind Albania and Czechia because of their away results against the other contenders. They were more dependable at home and should have too much quality for an Estonia team who are fortunate to have clinched the sole path to the play-offs from UEFA Nations League D.

Thomas Haberli’s Blueshirts won all four of their Nations League games after benefitting from an easier draw, but they were found out in their Euro 2024 group.

Blueshirts have tightened up at the back

Estonia came bottom of Group F and finished with only one point and a -20 goal difference from eight matches against Belgium, Austria, Sweden and Azerbaijan. Only Gibraltar and Liechtenstein scored fewer goals than them in qualifying and only the aforementioned teams plus Cyprus and San Marino conceded more.

Poland play a more patient style than Sweden, who beat Estonia 5-0 in Tallinn and 2-0 at home, but there is comparable quality in the squads even if Robert Lewandowski is still a cut above Viktor Gyokeres at the highest level.

The Poles should be able to clinch victory with a bit to spare, but the scoreline might not go beyond 2-0 for the home side. Estonia did tighten up towards the end of 2023, preventing Azerbaijan, Austria and Sweden from scoring more than two against them while Poland have not scored three in a game since a 4-1 win in Andorra two and a half years ago.