San Marino vs Belarus Predictions

• San Marino have scored in four of their seven defeats in 2026
• Belarus have faced 4.3 xG across their four Nations League games
• The hosts generated 0.96 xG in the reverse fixture

Minnows can get on the scoresheet

San Marino are heavy outsiders for Thursday’s home meeting with Belarus, but they can cause some problems for the visitors after finding the net in a defeat in Albania last month.

The hosts have lost their last six internationals, and they’re bottom of their Nations League group after shipping 16 goals across four defeats. However, San Marino have generated 2.1 xG across those matches, and almost half of that tally came in their 4-0 loss against Belarus.

San Marino had 0.96 xG in that defeat, and they won the shot count in the second half 8-6.

Belarus have only conceded twice in their Nations League group, but they’ve faced 4.3 xG across those games. The visitors failed to keep clean sheets in three of their first four games this year, and they conceded just shy of three goals per game in World Cup qualifying.

While San Marino look set for another defeat, they started the year by scoring in defeats to the Faroe Islands, Bangladesh and Azerbaijan.