Sarpsborg vs Besiktas Predictions

When the competition started back in September, few people would’ve looked at this group and had Sarpsborg down as a team to progress, though the Norwegians have impressed and are currently in an excellent position on seven points. Having played far better than the result suggested in the reverse fixture, Thursday’s hosts should come into this match feeling confident.

Sarpsborg’s only defeat in Group I came on match-day one in Besiktas, so it would be easy to assume that the hosts will struggle on Thursday night, though if we look at that match more closely, we can see that the Norwegians were hard done by in Turkey. From a creativity point of view, Thursday’s hosts made the running, while they also gave less away than the Turks. Given that they ended the match with a +0.25 expected goal supremacy, it’s fair to say that Sarpsborg we unlucky.

Aside from their respectable performance away in Turkey on match-day one, Geir Bakke’s men have acquitted themselves very well overall in Group I. They fully deserved their victory over group leaders Genk on match-day two while they were against unlucky not to come out on top when hosting Malmo on match-day three. Having avoided defeat since losing in Turkey and having played well in both of their previous home matches, the hosts ought to be feeling confident ahead of this match.

In contrast, Besiktas have underwhelmed in the Europa League this season. There can be no denying the fact that Thursday’s visitors have some very talented individuals in their ranks, but they’ve not quite produced the goods as a team in this competition. As mentioned above, they were anything but impressive on match-day one, while they’ve since failed to really get going in defeat against both Malmo and Genk.

Away matches against both Genk and Malmo have shown that Şenol Güneş’s men aren’t particularly good at forcing the issue offensively, while they’ve also shown that the visitors lack defensive stability, especially when facing teams who’re willing to hit them on the break, which is a tactic that has served Sarpsborg well.

From an overall performance point of view, with an average expected goal difference of +0.43, Sarpsborg, who’ve given away 1.0 or more expected goals in just one of their four UEL matches, have looked the better side in Group I, which means that they could probably do with being shorter in the betting. Against a visiting side who’ve given away more than they’ve created and who’ve offered little in each of their two away matches, the hosts are backed to defy the odds and gain another positive result.