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Sassuolo vs Spezia Predictions

Published on 5:30pm GMT 17 March 2023

  • 17:30
  • Expired
  • MAPEI Stadium
Sassuolo
Spezia
  • BT Sport 1

Sassuolo to Win

Reason for tip

Sassuolo have won five of their last seven games, only losing to Napoli during that run and winning 4-3 at Roma last time out. Sassuolo created 3.5 xG in that game and are the eighth-best team in Serie A this season by that measure. Spezia, meanwhile, have won one of their last nine and were fortunate to beat Inter Milan last week after allowing 3.8 xG.

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Sassuolo 3-1

Reason for tip

Sassuolo have seen both teams net in four of their last seven games, with 12 goals being scored across their last two matches. Only Serie A’s top seven teams have outscored the Neroverdi this term, while only three teams have a worse defensive record than Spezia.

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Sassuolo vs Spezia Predictions

  • Sassuolo have won five of their last seven games, only losing to Napoli in that stretch.
  • The hosts have hit the net 16 times in that run, scoring seven across their last two wins over Cremonese and Roma.
  • While Spezia upset Inter Milan last Friday, that is their only win in their last nine matches.
  • Spezia have Serie A’s third-worst expected goals against tally this term. Sassuolo are eighth in the division for expected goals created.

Neroverdi and Aquilotti mastermind upsets

Last weekend saw several shock results in Serie A, but Sassuolo and Spezia were the teams to mastermind the biggest upsets, beating top-four contenders Roma and Inter Milan respectively. On Friday, Spezia – now with a five-point cushion to the relegation zone – visit the Mapei Stadium, where a free-scoring Neroverdi side will fancy their chances of extending an excellent run of form.

Alessio Dionisi’s men benefitted from a moment of madness from Marash Kumbulla last time out, with the Roma defender set off for a mindless kick as the Neroverdi won 4-3 at the Stadio Olimpico. There can be little doubt that Sassuolo have finally found their shooting boots, however, hitting 16 goals in a seven-game streak in which they have won five times, only losing to Napoli. Sassuolo recorded 19 attempts worth 3.5 xG at the home of the Giallorossi, demonstrating their creative abilities.

Spezia’s surprise win over Inter was no less impressive, though it was claimed through a determined rearguard action from Leonardo Semplici’s men, with M’Bala Nzola’s penalty proving decisive after Daniel Maldini – son of Milan great Paolo – opened the scoring with a cultured finish. That was Spezia’s first win in nine games, though they have drawn three of their last five. While the visitors will not be blown away and should have more than enough to stave off relegation, they were perhaps fortunate to beat Inter – who created a huge 3.8 xG – and they can’t allow Sassuolo similar chances.

Sassuolo to maintain upward trajectory

With Sassuolo in fine form and netting seven goals in their last two games, backing Dionisi’s men for victory appears a prudent play – Spezia have lost eight of their 12 away league matches this term and have allowed opponents the third-highest xG figures in Serie A.

Meanwhile, four of Sassuolo’s last seven games have contained goals at both ends, as have three of Spezia’s last five. We expect the entertainment to continue here with a 3-1 home win.


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