Scotland vs San Marino Predictions

If it needed any confirmation, then Scotland’s chances of making it out of this group were ended on Thursday. They fell 12 points off second-placed Russia with their 4-0 hammering. They are down in fifth behind the likes of Cyprus and Kazakhstan, leaving the Scots set for one of their worst qualifying attempts ever.

A slip up for the Scots this weekend could make things even worse. They are hosting San Marino in their easiest game of the group, but it was a victory over the same opponents that basically did for Alex McLeish. His side toiled to a 2-0 away win earlier in the group, while Steve Clarke has hardly done much better in his five games to date.

The visitors are exactly where we expected, bottom on zero points. Even Scotland aren’t bad enough to be overtaken – or even beaten – by this San Marino side. Even after four losses by an aggregate score of 13-1, Scotland are 1/100 to take the points this weekend.

There’s little doubt that the hosts will win this clash, but how will they win it? This Scotland side isn’t exactly in the position to blast anyone away. They look completely disjointed, with little goal threat, poor build-up play and rock-bottom morale. In their last 28 internationals they’ve not scored more than four goals on any occasion, so will they really win by the margins the bookies are predicting?

In their last 52 home games, Scotland’s biggest win was a 6-1 success over Gibraltar. That’s the one big thumping they’ve dished out, dating back over 12 years at Hampden. Recent form doesn’t suggest that they’ll turn that record around, given that they’ve scored once in their last four.

San Marino may even come here targeting their first away goal since 2017, given Scotland have conceded 17 goals already in this group. Meanwhile, their recent record against San Marino also suggests that this will be closer than many expect.

Scotland’s biggest ever win over San Marino was a 5-0 success back in 1995. They last met in Scotland back in 2001, when the Scots won 4-0. On average, the Scots have hit three goals per meeting with San Marino. Given that this is far from a vintage Scotland side, we doubt that they’ll be posting seven or eight goals, the kind of results Russia and Belgium have produced.

Instead, we see this being more in line with Cyprus’s 5-0 win and Kazakhstan’s 4-0 success against the bottom side. We are backing San Marino +6 as our bet for this clash, while we’re backing a 4-0 home win.