Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions

In what will be the third renewal of this fixture in just six days, Sevilla will be hoping to use the lead built last week to guide them through to the last eight. The Andalusians did lose against Bilbao in the league at the weekend but considering that they established a two-goal lead, scoring three times away from home in this tie last week, they’ll fancy themselves to progress to the next round.

Sevilla won by three goals to one when the pair met in this competition last week, which suggests that they thrived in what was an open, attacking game, though that’s not exactly what happened. Both teams did show reasonable intent, though the score-line is perhaps a little misleading. Despite countering effectively, Pablo Machín’s men probably weren’t full value for their three goals, as the fact that they recorded just 0.97 expected goals suggests. This number tells us that a single Sevilla goal would’ve been a better reflection of the chances that they created. Bilbao created just 0.86, which also tells us that the hosts struggled to really get going in the final third.

Having found it tough to create anything clear-cut last Thursday, Bilbao seemingly improved in the final third when the pair met in the league on Sunday, though much like Sevilla were in the first leg of this tie, Athletic were fortunate to find the net on multiple occasions. On Sunday, Bilbao scored twice and didn’t concede, but they clocked just 0.85 expected goals, while Sevilla recorded 1.43. Such numbers suggest that a 2-0 win for the Basque club was slightly unjust.

Moving forward, Sevilla must see this game as a huge opportunity, not only to go through to the next round but to regain the winning thread. Twice in the last week they’ve restricted Bilbao to very few chances, while they should also be suited by the way this game is likely to pan out tactically. As the side trailing, Bilbao must come out and attack, so the Andalusians will be able to play on the break, a tactic that served them well just six days ago.

From a betting point of view, ‘Sevilla to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out. In addition to the numbers above, which make the hosts easy to fancy, Sevilla have a good record of creating plenty at home. In their last five at Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan, Wednesday’s hosts have scored eight goals and have posted expected goals for figures of 1.43, 2.09, 1.75, 3.81 and 1.5.