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Southampton vs Derby Predictions

  • 19:45
  • Expired
  • St. Marys Stadium
      • BBC One

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Will Ralph Hasenhüttl guide Southampton into the next round of the FA Cup? His side couldn’t prevent a Derby rally at Pride Park, as they forced a replay. The Saints took a 2-0 lead at the Championship side in this Third Round tie, but the Rams fought back to force a rematch at St Mary’s this week. The two sides meet in Wednesday’s only FA Cup clash, but who will progress? There’s a decent prize on the line, with a live clash with Accrington Stanley up for grabs in the next round.

      Southampton look much improved of late, with their 2-1 win over Leicester at the weekend taking them clear of the drop zone for the time being. They’re only a point above Newcastle, so plenty could yet change for the Saints. However, they are out to launch a cup run alongside a bid for Premier League survival, and they come into Wednesday night’s replay as favourites against Derby. That’s despite some poor home form this season, but will Hasenhüttl help to end that this week?

      Premier League hopefuls Derby come here after dominating the weekend through Spygate. A Leeds’ staff member was caught sulking around the Derby training ground ahead of their 2-0 loss to the Championship leaders on Friday night. That setback angered many, with Frank Lampard saying that their opponents got the inside scoop on how they were approaching the fixture. They don’t have any such concerns this week, and the decorated Derby manager will be looking to continue his strong cup record, which carried into the Rams’ Carabao Cup campaign.

      Derby were winners on penalties at Old Trafford earlier this season, before almost knocking out Lampard’s former side, Chelsea. They lost 3-2 at Stamford Bridge, putting in a display that was a credit to the whole club. Their 2-2 draw with the Saints is another example of that, so the visitors have little to fear from taking on another Premier League side.

      We expect Derby to come here and cause problems. They’ve seen both teams score in seven of their last eight FA Cup clashes, while 71% of their Championship trips so far have finished with both sides finding the back of the net. Saints have seen BTTS land in 70% of their home games, including their previous five here. With that in mind, we think there’s great value to be found on both teams to score on Wednesday night.

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