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Southend vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

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  • Roots Hall
    Plymouth Argyle

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      Tip Reasoning

      Southend are a side that has struggled massively for consistency this season, though after a good win on home soil last time out, Chris Powell’s men will be looking to put together a winning run, which is something that they’ve not done since late September/early October.

      Their win over Gillingham wasn’t totally merited, but it was certainly needed. Chris Powell’s Shrimpers moved themselves to within ten points of the top six with that victory. Their chances of making the play-offs are slim, but they’re not so far back that they’ve no longer got anything to aim for.

      Facing Gillingham at home on New Year’s Day presented them with an excellent opportunity, an opportunity that they gratefully accepted, and fortunately, Saturday’s hosts have another excellent chance to record maximum points.

      Performances at home haven’t always been great as far as Southend are concerned, but they have often made light work of beating the lesser teams. Powell’s side have seen off Gillingham, Scunthorpe, Fleetwood and Bradford at home this season. Three of whom they easily got the better of in terms of expected goals. Their average of 1.57 expected goals suggests that they should have few problems creating chances against Plymouth’s dodgy rear-guard. The fact that they boast an average of just 1.1 expected goals against at home bodes well too.

      As for the visitors, well, Plymouth have given away far too much on the road, while they’ve not created enough either. Derek Adams’ men have shipped a worrying 23 goals away from home during the current campaign, which is bad enough, though the fact that they’re conceding an average of 2.17 expected goals for tells us that the Pilgrims have been fortunate not to concede a few more.

      Giving away far too many scoring chances has become commonplace for the team that currently sits in 23rd position. In League One this season, only Scunthorpe have conceded more expected goals than Plymouth, so it’s unsurprising that the Pilgrims have conceded more goals than all but two teams in the entire division.

      Given the numbers mentioned above, this really is a gilt-edged opportunity for the Shrimpers to come out on top and, at the current prices, they’re worth supporting to do so. Against defensively inept opponents, both ‘Southend to Win’ and ‘Southend to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ stand out as viable options.

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