SPAL vs Empoli Predictions

Having remained in the division last season, SPAL may have been looking to kick forward this time around, though they’ll probably once again settle for safety. If staying up is their goal, then Saturday’s hosts are doing reasonably well, as they currently sit two points above the drop-zone, though their form of late has waned and they’re now in danger of slipping into the dogfight at the bottom of the table. A win against relegation rivals Empoli is a must.

SPAL do come into this match without a win in four matches, though it’s important to keep things in context. During that spell, they’ve had to face both Juventus and Lazio away from home, so perhaps they should not be judged too harshly. There have of course been a few poor showings from Saturday’s hosts, a recent 3-0 loss at home to Frosinone being one of them, but overall, Leonardo Semplici’s men have performed respectably this season.

At home, SPAL have found solace. They’ve lost half of their matches at Stadoi Paolo Mazza, but have secured some pleasing wins against the likes of Atalanta and Parma, while from a performance point of view, they’ve looked useful. Semplici’s men currently have an average expected goal difference of +0.74 at home, so they’re certainly no mugs.

Unlike Spal, Empoli come into this match having won at home last time out, while they beat Udinese prior to that, so confidence should be high in the away camp. Furthermore, their efforts on the road have been reasonably pleasing.

When plying their trade away from the comforts of home, Giuseppe Iachini’s men are without a win, though they’ve played much better than the bare results would have us believe. The visitors are currently averaging 1.48 expected goals for on their travels, while they’ve given up a respectable 1.42 at the other end. Such stats are less impressive than what SPAL have conjured up on their own patch, but they’re far from disappointing.

However, despite offering some decent underlying numbers on their travels, it’s tough to go against the hosts at the prices. SPAL, who’re the eighth best team in Serie A in terms of expected goals against, really have performed well at home, while this match represents an excellent opportunity for them to regain the winning thread. Given that their average expected goal difference at home of +0.74 is far more than Empoli’s on the road (+0.06), SPAL really ought to be shorter in the betting and are thus worth backing to come out on top.