Sporting Lisbon vs PSV Predictions

Since losing in the opening round of group games against PSV, Sporting have won all their games and sit top of the pile in Group D heading into the penultimate match this week. PSV really need to win this weekend to give them a good chance of making the knockout stage, as they sit level on points with second-placed LASK and two points behind Sporting.

All the stats point towards a Sporting win this week, however, although we have backed a ‘Draw no Bet,’ which would see your stake returned if the game ends in a stalemate.

Sporting have won 75% of their group games in the Europa League so far this season, while PSV have only won 50% of theirs and have not picked up maximum points in either of their last two outings. Sporting have conceded an average of a goal a game in the Europa League this season. But they have been scoring an average of almost two goals per game, while PSV have conceded an average of two goals per group game and have scored an average of over one goal per game, which is why we have backed a 2-1 win for the hosts on Thursday.

Sporting have won three of their five domestic home games this season, as well as both of their group home games in the Europa League, while PSV have lost twice on the road in the Eredivisie and lost their last Europa League away game against LASK. The 60% of Sporting’s home games ending in victory is above the league average of 41%, while PSV have won just 43% of their away games and have seen 71% of their away games produce over 2.5 goals. What’s more, 80% of Sporting’s home games this season have produced over 2.5 goals and the Portuguese side have only won and kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches in front of their own fans, which is why we expect PSV to score on Thursday.

Sporting have obtained as many one-goal margin wins as wins with a margin of two goals or more (three of each) and we’ve backed the hosts to win by a one-goal margin on Thursday, as well. Both teams have scored in 57% of PSV’s away games in the Eredivisie and the visitors have scored in each of their away games in Group D so far. However, Sporting head into the game with five wins from their last six matches and PSV have only won once during that period, suffering three defeats, and haven’t won away from home in their last four attempts.

We’re confident Sporting will win and have thus backed the hosts with a Draw no Bet this Thursday. The hosts head into the game as the clear form favourites and have outperformed PSV in Group D so far. However, the hosts haven’t scored more than two goals very often this season and are going to need to put in another strong defensive display against a PSV side that have scored more goals away from home than they have conceded in the league this season.