Stevenage vs Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Stevenage made it two wins on the bounce by scoring a 94^th minute winner away at Morecambe last weekend and they’ve now be hoping to move into the coveted top seven with another win. That said, beating a very useful Forest Green side, who won with a degree of ease last time out, will be anything but straightforward.

Things have gone well for Stevenage of late, but it’s easy to feel that they’ve ridden their luck a tad. They deservedly came out on top against Morecambe last time out, though their performances prior to that win were questionable, especially from a defensive point of view. Dino Maamria’s men were very fortunate to conceded just a single goal against Crawley, who created 3.34 expected goals when Stevenage were last in action at Broadhall Way, while the Boro gave away 2.17 expected goals when losing against Cambridge prior to that. Such defensive number are hardly positive.

Even at home, Stevenage have been giving away far too much, both in terms of chances and goals. As mentioned above, they allowed Crawley to create far too much in their last home game, while they were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Newport, who recorded 2.19 expected goals, prior to that. Stevenage’s last five expected-goals against figures at home read: 3.34, 2.19, 4.87, 1.04 and 1.34. Forest Green will be licking their lips upon seeing such numbers. The fact that Stevenage have been outperformed in terms of expected goals in each of their last four at home is also worrying.

Fortunately for the hosts, Forest Green have given quite a bit away on their travels. The visitors have kept just one clean sheet away from home all season, while it’s not often that they’ve kept things overly tight when playing away from home. Prior to their 0-0 against a reasonably pragmatic Oldham side, Saturday’s visitors had given away expected-goals against figures of 2.13, 1.65, 0.96, 1.6 and 1.39 in their previous five away matches. As is the case with the hosts, such numbers don’t exactly scream defensively solidity.

At the other end of the pitch, Forest Green have made plenty of headway on their travels. They’ve scored at least twice in four of their last five on the road, while their expected goals for figures during that time read: 1.47, 2.89, 1.3, 0.99 and 1.32. Against a Stevenage side that has given lots away of late, Rovers ought to do well offensively.

Based on Stevenage’s recent home numbers and Forest Green’s recent away numbers, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ looks a tad overpriced in the early betting. Neither side has kept things all that tight of late, which means that both are likely to target this as a game to do well offensively in. Moreover, the visitors have made a habit of being involved in high-scoring games on the road this season, so betting that there’s no shortage of goals at Broadhall Way on Saturday afternoon is a solid option.