Stuttgart vs Fortuna Dusseldorf Predictions

No matter how thrilling last weekend’s draw away to Freiburg was, the fact still remains that Stuttgart are the only Bundesliga club without a competitive win in the new 2018/19 campaign, having lost to Hansa Rostock in the DFB Pokal first round, as well as taking just one point from their opening three league fixtures (D1 L2). Tayfun Korkut’s side did manage to end one negative streak on Sunday though, scoring not just their first goal of the season, but also their second and third in that 3-3 draw. Stuttgart made the most of their chances, with veteran Mario Gomez being in the right place at the right time to score a brace, but the Swabians are still the third lowest ranking side for shots on target (27). Creativity is lacking without play-maker Daniel Didavi, who has been sidelined with a knock, but should he return on Friday, you’d expect that to improve.

Fortuna Dusseldorf, who were crowned Bundesliga 2 champions following a dramatic final day victory back in May, look to have settled in well to the top flight. Fortuna sit with four points after three matches, being unlucky to have lost their opener against Augsburg (2-1 defeat), having worked hard to take a point away from RB Leipzig (1-1 draw), and finally having gotten their first win of the season at home to Hoffenheim last weekend (2-1 win). New recruit Alfredo Morales got his first goal for the club in that win and other summer signings like Dodi Lukebakio, who scored the winning goal off the bench against Hoffenheim, and Marvin Ducksch, who bagged one in in the DFB Pokal first round against Koblenz, are looking sharp too, so coach Friedhelm Funkel must feel spoilt for choice in terms of attacking options.

So how does this one look in terms of betting? Well, before Bayern Munich came to town a few weeks back, Stuttgart were unbeaten at home under coach Korkut (W4 D3), and that strength stemmed from a strong back line with the Swabians conceding just two goals over that run. Now while that didn’t prove enough to stop the German champions from winning, the 3-0 scoreline is modest by Bayern standards. Stuttgart are a calculated and composed side at home – not one match at the Mercedes-Benz-Arena saw over 3.5 goals scored last season – and with them having one of the Bundesliga’s least dangerous attacks so far, you can’t really expect a repeat of last weekend again here. With that in mind, there should be some reasonable value in backing under 2.5 goals for this one on Friday.

What about Fortuna Dusseldorf then? Granted, Dusseldorf have scored in every match so far this season – four goals total – but it’s early days in the 18/19 campaign for a newly promoted side. Friedhelm Funkel’s men scored just one in their last away outing against RB Leipzig, a side that have conceded a massive 11 goals over their last four competitive outings, and in terms of numbers, his side have been outperforming their underlying stats. Dusseldorf have managed 28 shots on goal so far this season, the fourth lowest total in the Bundesliga, and against an established Stuttgart side that has conceded just five goals over their last eight matches at home (and now has a World Cup winner in defender Benjamin Pavard) then this should prove a tough fixture. Our prediction: 1-0 Stuttgart.