Tranmere vs Cambridge United Predictions

Tranmere’s mixed season continued last weekend, as they failed to get the better of non-league Southport in the FA Cup, despite playing in front of a home crowd and despite leading with just 20 minutes to go. That result won’t have pleased manager Micky Mellon, who’ll be looking for his side to bounce back on Saturday.

Even though results weren’t necessarily going their way, Tranmere had been playing well prior to their trip to Grimsby a fortnight ago; they were bettering terms of both possession and chances created and were generally tough to get the better of, though Rovers struggled massively at Blundell Park. On that occasion, Mellon’s men were shocking at the back, as they conceded numerous goals and chances, while they didn’t offer anywhere near enough offensively in comparison. A much better performance will be needed on Saturday.

Fortunately, it is easy to envisage Rovers doing better now that they’re back on their own patch. Tranmere have saved their best for when playing at Prenton Park this season. They’ve lost just one of their ten home matches, while they’ve been particularly stingy in terms of what they’ve given away. Mellon’s men have conceded just four goals in front of their own fans, while they’ve kept an impressive six clean sheets. Add in the fact that they’re averaging just 0.88 expected-goals against and it’s easy to conclude that Rovers have a very secure back-line when playing in front of a home crowd.

In contrast, Cambridge, who’ve just sacked Joe Dunne, have conceded plenty of goals on their travels. Saturday’s visitors have been breached in all but two of their ten travelling matches in League Two during the current campaign, while they shipped a total of 20 goals, which is a far cry from the four that Tranmere have shipped on their own patch. The underlying numbers do tell us that Cambridge have been unfortunate to concede so many. They’re giving up an average of 1.23 expected goals on their travels, which does suggest that they’re better defensively than their goals-against tally, but it certainly doesn’t suggest that they’re as good as Saturday’s hosts.

Moreover, Tranmere’s offensive efforts at Prenton Park have been more impressive than Cambridge’s attacking exploits on their travels. Rovers have failed to score just twice at home, while the visitors have failed to score four times on their travels. In addition, Tranmere currently average 1.52 expected goals for at home, while Cambridge are averaging 1.22 on the road.

As they’re offering that bit more (at both ends) at home than their opponents on the road, it’s hard to oppose Tranmere, who probably deserve to be slightly shorter on their own patch. In the league, Micky Mellon’s team have been very tough to face on their own patch and they’re thus fancied to see off a Cambridge side that has shown a soft under-belly on the road of late.