TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Predictions

Alfred Schreuder’s managerial reign at Hoffenheim got off to the worst possible start as his side conceded what turned out to be the only goal of the game within a minute against Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend. An otherwise promising performance, which included ruled out goals from Dennis Geiger and Ishak Belfodil, offer plenty of reason for optimism, though.

Schreuder will, however, still be without last season’s top scorer Andrej Kramaric, who is still working on getting back to fitness. His attacking plans should continue to work around new forward Ihlas Bebou, who scored four goals in six games for Hannover before their relegation from the Bundesliga last season. At the other end, first-choice centre-back Benjamin Hubner is also still out – not ideal for their defence.

Bremen are also searching for their first points of the 19/20 campaign, having lost 3-1 at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf last weekend, a result that could be called “undeserved” when taking in account the expected goals (xG) totals of 2.01 vs 1.02 from that game. Coach Florian Kohfeldt had more bad luck during the week with forward Milot Rashica, who has scored four goals over his last five appearances for club and country, also being ruled out.

However, that does give more opportunity to prodigal USMNT star Josh Sargent and new signing Niclas Fullkrug to get their season underway. Both have plenty to prove, with the latter having netted 14 goals in 34 appearances for Hannover in 2017/18, but Kohfeldt may favour veteran striker Claudio Pizarro if he looks to play things safer.

There are a lot of new variables in the mix ahead of this game, but history does show us one thing: Hoffenheim don’t do well against Werder Bremen. In fact, Hoffenheim only have a lower win percentage in the Bundesliga against Bayern Munich (9%, 2 wins from 22 games) than they do against Bremen (14%, 3 wins from 22).

After Werder Bremen’s positive opening day performance, registering an expected goals score of 2.01 compared to Hoffenheim’s 0.63, there could be some good value in backing them ‘Double Chance’ (to win or draw) this weekend. Notably, Hoffenheim are winless in five (D1 L4), while Bremen have lost just two of their last nine away days (W3 D4 L2) – three of those were 1-1 draws.

As is often the case with a lot of unknowns, we don’t think this game will have much in it in terms of goals – in fact, none of the last five matches between Bremen and Hoffenheim have seen more than two goals. Four of the last eight meetings between them have ended in a 1-1 draw too, so this looks a good price for those fancying a correct score bet as well. Our prediction: 1-1 draw.