Udinese vs Brescia Predictions

There’s a big battle at the bottom of Serie A at the Dacia Arena this weekend. Newly promoted Brescia are making a fight out of their return to the top flight, but can they secure a victory away to Udinese? Back to back defeats has left the hosts looking vulnerable, while they could be hit with another blow with the visitors making an encouraging start.

Udinese were beaten 1-0 at Inter Milan on Saturday, a game which saw the Zebrette offer next to nothing going forward. They walked away from that clash with just 0.25 on the board in terms of xG. The hosts have now lost back to back games following their 3-1 loss at home to Parma, but could they suffer another home loss here?

Brescia were on course to continue their fine start as they raced into a 3-1 lead over Bologna, but they were pegged back in a 4-3 home defeat. After that defeat, the visitors are also coming here with back to back losses, following an opening weekend win at Cagliari which marked their return to the top flight.

While Brescia took a hit last time out, their game was changed entirely by a red card. The sending off of Daniele Dessena in the 48th minute came with the side 3-1 ahead. Two of the following three goals they conceded came on his flank of the pitch, with their left-flank undermined. The dramatic shift is backed up in the xG data. After 50 minutes, Brescia were leading in the xG stakes, but post-red card Bologna’s tally jumped from 1.03 to finish on 3.69.

Essentially, Brescia probably have Dessena to blame. On the bright side, they’ve already won once on the road this term and they head into this clash with a chance to add to that. We think the newly-promoted side can follow Parma’s lead, especially given that Alfredo Donnarumma has made an excellent start with three goals in three.

Brescia will be looking to take advantage of a Udinese side who are struggling at both ends of the pitch. They’re among the league’s lowest scorers while Brescia should have enough to edge them out at the back. We see the visitors causing a shock here, while we think they are well priced for the result. We are backing Brescia to win this clash, while we are going with a narrow 1-0 victory for the visitors.