Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg Betting Tips and Predictions

Werder Bremen are in urgent need of points in the relegation fight and are faced with VfL Wolfsburg this Saturday, a team they historically haven’t performed very well against at home. Bremen are winless in four matches (D1 L3), taking only one point with a 1-1 draw against Mainz 05 in the home game before last. Werder Bremen have the third worst home form in the Bundesliga (W2 D5 L7), with seven home losses being a joint club record with the 1998/99 and the 2012/2013 seasons, and all five draws being “score draws” within the last 7 home matches (three 1-1’s, one 2-2 and one 3-3).

Wolfsburg were, the Wednesday before last, at the highest stage the club had ever performed on in Europe, managing to beat Real Madrid 2-0 at home in the first leg of the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League. Just one week later, after once again a disappointing away performance from Wolfsburg, their dreams were over as Christiano Ronaldo bagged a hattrick to seal Madrid a 3-0 win and a place in the semi-finals. Wolfsburg are thrown back to face the reality of their disappointing season in the Bundesliga. They are sitting in eighth-place in the Bundesliga, trailing six points behind all Borussia M’gladbach, Mainz 05 and Schalke 04 (5th, 6th and 7th respectively and ordered by goal difference), and having no further chance of silverware this season, a long shot Europa League qualification place is all they have left to aim for.

This is a match between one of the worst home forms in the league (third worst – Werder Bremen) against one of the worst away forms in the league (second worst – Wolfsburg). Werder Bremen have more to fight for with the impending relegation threat and they are against a deflated Wolfsburg, who come into this in poor away form after their mid-week Champions League defeat and three consecutive away defeats in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg, however, always seem to be Bremen’s “bogey” team and they have won each of their last three visits to the Weserstadion by two goals or more (a 3-0, a 3-1 and the 5-3 win in the 2014/2015 campaign being the most exciting). Wolfsburg may have only won two games away from home this season, but these wins against Hannover 96 and Darmstadt are against teams with the weakest home records in the Bundesliga – a category that Werder Bremen also find themselves in. To make matters worse, Werder Bremen have failed to keep a clean sheet all season.

Combining the analysis above with the statistics below, we expect Wolfsburg to win or draw this match and both teams to score. With Werder Bremen having to fight for survival from relegation there should be lots of goals and while the cards are stacked in Wolfsburg’s favour, Bremen may take a point with a late goal as they throw men forward, hence a final score of a 2-2 draw at 10/1 seeming solid value in this match.

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