West Ham United vs Brentford Predictions

• Brentford have lost all three away trips so far this term
• The Bees only lost three times against sides outside the top six last season
• West Ham’s five defeats this term have each come against sides currently in the top eight
• The Bees have won the xG battle in only one of their first seven games

Encouraging signs for hosts

West Ham have only picked up one point from their first two games under new boss Nuno, but there are reasons to be optimistic ahead of his debut in the home dugout.

The Hammers were comprehensively beaten 2-0 at Arsenal in their last game, but they were fully deserving of a point, if not more, in their 1-1 draw at Everton.

While Nuno has only had a couple of games to fix a club that has been directionless for over a year, there are some deeper statistics which suggest they’re doing well. West Ham have forced opponents to take shots from much longer distances than they were under Potter, while their goalkeeper’s save percentage has jumped from 43% in the first five gameweeks to above 80%.

Kind clash for Nuno

Things could get even better for the Hammers this week, as they face a Brentford side who have lost all of their away games so far this season. The visitors were always expected to struggle after Thomas Frank’s departure, but their away form lays bare how vulnerable they look.

Brentford lost only three times against sides outside the top six last season. The Bees have already lost visits to Nottingham Forest, Sunderland, and Fulham.

A look through their underlying numbers shows a stretch of low-margin games. There have been just 0.4 Expected Goals between the sides in each of Brentford’s first seven league games. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the xG battle in five of those. With West Ham showing signs of improvement at the back, they could also get the better of Brentford.

Hammers were handed a tough start

While there was little argument against Graham Potter’s dismissal from the London Stadium, it’s worth noting that West Ham’s start was tough. Their five defeats were each against sides who currently sit inside the top eight. Nuno guided them to a 1-1 draw with a midtable Everton side, while Potter’s side won 3-0 at third-bottom Nottingham Forest.

While there were many reasons to be negative around West Ham’s start, they’re not really expected to match the league’s top sides. Brentford is their best home fixture of the season so far, while the visitors enter it having lost four of their first seven games.

The hosts were also held back by a lack of pace in midfield, something which was clear in August 2024. It was late in this summer window before they moved to address that, but adding Mateus Fernandes and Soungoutou Magassa should help to improve the Hammers in transition.

There seems to be some early value around the Hammers here are many wait for Nuno to get up and running. However, there are already early signs of improvement. Considering the step backwards that Brentford have taken, the hosts are the standout bet.