Luton Town vs Oxford United Predictions

As both Sunderland and Portsmouth failed to make up any ground on the top two during the week, Luton are guaranteed to be playing in the Championship next season, though after their excellent campaign, the Hatter will want to go up as champions. A win would almost certainly see the Hatters go up in the number one position, as their goal difference is considerably better than Barnsley’s, though anything other than a win and Mick Harford’s men will probably have to settle for second place.

Luton’s efforts this season must be applauded; back-to-back promotion are anything but easy, though the Hatters have made light work of going up at the first time of asking. They were very much built for League One last season, and while a push for the play-offs was the aim, few people would’ve expected the Hatters to be needing a final-day win to secure the title.

A lot of Luton’s success this season has been down to the fact that they’ve turned Kenilworth Road into a fortress. Harford’s men, who’ve scored more home goals than any other League One team this season, are one game away from finishing the season unbeaten at home. In front of their own fans, they’ve scored an impressive average of 2.45 goals, while they’ve surrendered an average of just 0.82.

However, while Luton have been excellent of late, they’ve been far from at their best over the last couple of weeks. The Hatters have won just one of their last five, while they’ve lost twice during that time. Moreover, lowly AFC Wimbledon held Saturday’s hosts to a draw at this venue, while Burton got the better of Harford’s men last time out, so it’s fair to say that Luton are not infallible.

While Luton’s form has waned over the last few weeks, Oxford have been thriving. The U’s come into this match having avoided defeat in each of their last nine matches, six of which they’ve won.

Having recently beaten Charlton, who recently got the better of Luton, Karl Robinson’s visitors will fancy themselves to do some damage at Kenilworth Road on Saturday. Oxford should also appreciate the fact that Luton will undoubtedly get forward and dictate the play. Playing on the break has brought plenty of joy for the U’s of late, as away-day wins against Coventry, Walsall and Shrewsbury have shown.

At the end of the day, as both the league table and the early betting suggest, Luton are quite a bit better than Oxford. However, is the gap in quality as big as the disparity in prices would have us believe? Probably not.

When we consider the fact that Oxford will be suited to playing on the break at Kenilworth Road in conjunction with the fact that the pressure of going for the title has got to Luton in recent weeks, it’s easy to feel that the visitors are just a tad overpriced. On this basis, backing Oxford to end the season by maintaining their current unbeaten run represents a slither of value.