Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
March is rarely the time for new beginnings in the football season, but the winter World Cup has changed that.
The first international break of 2023 throws us straight into the Euro 2024 qualifiers, with changes ahead for some of Europe’s biggest teams.
France will be moving forward without some key names after losing the 2022 World Cup final, while Louis van Gaal’s departure is set to push the Netherlands in a completely new direction.
Our bets below are priced up on Betfair, where new customers can sign up below to receive £30 in free bets to use during this international break! We have also combined our selections into a 16/1 Bet Builder treble which you can add to your Betfair betslip in a single click!
16/1 Bet Builder treble for France vs Netherlands
Back to the future for Dutch
Ronaldo Koeman returns for his second stint as Netherlands boss and the former Barcelona manager has already made it clear he’s going to make big changes.
The decision to play with five defenders at the World Cup didn’t go down well in the Netherlands, despite van Gaal claiming pragmatism was their best shot at winning the trophy.
It was certainly odd to see the descendants of total football abandon their familiar style when possession and pressing remains the approach of the world’s top coaches and clubs.
It’s not like that Dutch style is some long-forgotten memory. Koeman’s spell in charge from 2018 to 2020 brought the Netherlands back to the peak of their powers while using their classic 4-3-3 formation.
Koeman has already announced that four defenders will be the basis of everything he does in his second spell. The 4-3-3 is likely to return, although Friday could see a slight tweak to a 4-2-3-1.
Netherlands look to next generation
Losing Frenkie De Jong for this trip is certainly a blow to Koeman’s hopes of a returning victory, but it is likely to speed up the introduction of the Netherland’s next generation.
The Dutch squad includes Feyenoord’s Mats Wieffer, PSV’s Xavi Simons and Ajax forward Brian Brobbey. All three talents are set for long international careers, but Wieffer and Simons could benefit from De Jong’s absence.
Expect the pair to feature in a new-look Dutch midfield, with Paris their opportunity for a breakout game.
Wieffer is an all-action midfielder for Eredivisie leaders Feyenoord, with his blend of defensive nous and technical ability making him a perfect future foil for De Jong.
Koeman tried to praise the 23-year-old in his firs press conference, saying he could, “become even better than Marten de Roon”. While that sounds like an option from a Football Manager press conference, it’s quite high praise from the man who basically started De Roon’s international career.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to ignore Simons for one of those attacking midfield spots in this clash. Koeman did try and play down the hype around the 19-year-old, but he does look like a star.
Simons has 19 goal contributions for PSV in the league this term, with his 13 goals making him the Eredivisie’s joint top-scorer.
The teenager recently set up a goal in the Europa League against Sevilla. That’s part of a five game run where he either scored or assisted, a run which he could continue in Paris.
France should fear possession battle
The 2018 world champions lost a raft of players after their final defeat in Qatar three months ago. Hugo Lloris, Raphael Varane and Karim Benzema all retired.
The French are also without the midfield which won them the World Cup in Russia, with Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante still out.
While the French side remains enormously talented, there are some weak spots in this latest squad. Midfield looks to be one of them, with Adrien Rabiot, Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga their most experienced central options heading into this game.
Didier Deschamps has always taken a safety-first approach as French boss and he usually isn’t too interested in the possession battle. That was clear in Qatar, having surrendered the majority of possession to England, Morocco and Argentina in their final three games.
With the Dutch reverting back to their usual style, expect them to dominate the ball in Paris.
Under Koeman Matthijs de Ligt enjoyed his best international spell of his career. With more freedom to get on the ball, he’s a player who should be involved a lot in this one.
Experienced midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum is another Koeman favourite and De Jong’s injury should see him return to the side. He certainly has a point to prove in the French capital after his dismal spell with PSG. Given the Netherland’s switch in approach, back those two to be key figures in the possession battle
Of course, winning the possession battle will require a stronger press from the Dutch. They were already a foul-happy side under van Gaal’s watch and lessening their defensive cover will put more pressure on them win the ball back earlier.
The Dutch racked up two more yellows than France in Qatar despite playing two fewer games. The French were also more disciplined across their Nations League games, picking up four yellows in six games to the Netherlands’ 13.
The Dutch should have plenty of the ball but that won’t stop them ending up in the referee’s notebook, so look to Koeman’s side to rack up the most cards.
Greizmann’s class to shine
While the Dutch have some great new options, they can’t match France’s brilliant forward line. Kylian Mbappe is set to take up the captain’s armband moving forward, but it’s Antoine Griezmann who deserves special attention from the Dutch defence.
The Atletico Madrid man heads into this break with three goals and two assists across his last five games and he’s a key creator for this French side. He finished the World Cup with three assists and he should thrive against a Dutch side who are likely to be more exposed at the back.
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