Almeria vs Albacete Predictions

Their slim chances of automatic promotion were ended by Malaga on Tuesday evening, though Albacete could still find themselves playing La Liga football next season, as they’re guaranteed a place in the play-offs. With just one regular-season game left, Saturday’s hosts will be looking to build momentum ahead of two huge games.

They’ve certainly not been poor at home, where they’ve accumulated a very respectable 37 points, though it’s Albacete’s excellent away form that has allowed them to occupy a comfortable position inside the top six. Saturday’s visitors come into this match with the joint-best away record in the division. In fact, if we go by the numbers of games won, Albacete rank as the Segunda’s best away side this season.

In contrast, Almeria have been a little bit underwhelming on their own patch. They’ve not done too badly, winning more games than they’ve lost and scoring far more goals than they’ve conceded, though they’ve failed to go with the pace of those in the top six. Ahead of this final weekend, Almeria rank as only the 11^th best side at home, which is slightly disappointing.

On the face of it, given what they’ve achieved, Albacete are the team to side with. However, if we ignore both the bare form and the respective home and away records of this pair, then it becomes easy to fancy the hosts.

On their own patch, Almeria have scored 1.45 goals on average and have conceded an average of just 0.75. Moreover, they average 1.51 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of just 0.85.

In terms of goals, Albacete haven’t done too badly on the road, as they’ve scored an average of 1.25 and have conceded an average of 0.9, though if we look at the underlying figures, then we can say that they’ve been a bit fortunate. Albacete have surrendered a rather displeasing average of 1.61 expected goals on their travels, while they only average 0.88 at the other end.

If we also consider the fact that the visitors are likely to rest players ahead of the play-offs, Almeria make even more appeal. Frankly, against a visiting side that has clearly presented their opponents with plenty of scoring opportunities on the road, which is why they’ve conceded twice in two of their last three, the hosts have a good opportunity to end the campaign with a win in front of their own fans.

At the prices, ‘Almeria to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ appears to be the best option. As a side that averages 1.51 expected goals for at home, against a side that concedes an average of 1.61 expected goals on the road, the hosts are backed to notch twice on route to victory against an Albacete team that has bigger concerns than this fixture.