Aston Villa vs Manchester City Predictions

• City have won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions
• Villa’s 2-1 loss to Go Ahead Eagles was only the third time this term in which they’ve won the xG battle
• Haaland has scored in 12 consecutive games for club and country
• The forward has scored 65% of City’s league goals, including five of their seven away strikes

City’s quiet comeback

Manchester City’s defeats against Tottenham and Brighton in August were in line with their struggles in the middle of last term. Pep Guardiola’s side fell off the pace early, but an understated four wins from five in the league has made them Arsenal’s biggest challengers.

Man City are into second, with their more reserved style of play bringing some stability to the Citizens. Guardiola’s side also secured a routine win over Villarreal in the Champions League this week, taking them onto seven points from their first three games in Europe.

City have won seven of nine games since the start of September, drawing twice. They haven’t been blowing opponents away, but they’re certainly restoring their fear factor.

Hard to bet against Haaland

City’s back-to-basics approach has led to them leaning on Erling Haaland more than ever, but the forward is in the form of his life. He hasn’t failed to score for club or country in 12 consecutive games, while he’s netted 24 goals in 14 appearances in 25/26.

In the Premier League alone, Haaland has scored 11 times in eight matches, which is 65% of their total this term. He’s been even more important on the road, scoring five of their seven away league goals.

Despite his incredible form, Haaland is close to evens to continue his scoring run. While he’s only found the net in one of three visits to Villa Park, he’s tough to oppose given his excellent form.

City to prove too strong for Villa

Aston Villa fell to a surprise 2-1 defeat against Dutch side Go Ahead Eagles on Thursday, while their recent five-game winning run came in spite of some concerning xG numbers.

Villa created just 0.3 xG in their win at Tottenham, while they were comprehensively outplayed in a win at Feyenoord, losing the xG battle 1.5 to 0.6.

In their push to turn things around on Thursday, Villa generated more xG than their opponents for only the third time this season. Given how well Haaland is playing, it’s hard to see any hope for them if they concede more chances than they create. With City excelling in both boxes, back them to secure all three points.