Hamburg vs Bayern Munich Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Hamburg find themselves in the relegation zone for the first time since the opening day last season and come into this match off the back of three consecutive Bundesliga defeats. Their losing streak began with a disappointing 3-1 defeat away to Bayer Leverkusen, where three late goals from Finnish super-sub Joel Pohjanpalo saw them take nothing away from a match for the first time this season. Next up on their schedule were newly-promoted sides RB Leipzig and Freiburg. Hamburg suffered a crushing 4-0 loss at home to the confident Leipzig, where Hungarian keeper Peter Gulacsi was a virtual spectator, and last Tuesday’s “English week” fixture against Freiburg was, again, a humbling experience. Hamburg found themselves on the out of luck and squandered too many chances in front of goal. United States Men’s National Team striker Bobby Wood, who joined them from Union Berlin, has been the only positive to take from these match, but was only able to hit the post last time out.

Bayern Munich maintained their 100% winning start to the season under Carlo Ancelotti with a convincing 3-0 win at home to Hertha Berlin on Wednesday. The Bavarian’s were back to their dominant, impenetrable defensive ways and Jerome Boateng made his first start of the season after a long injury spell. Frank Ribery also put in another impressive performance. His controlled dribble through the Hertha defence and calm finish claimed him the opening goal. Persistent as always going forward, Bayern Munich kept the pressure high and Thiago got the second goal for Munich in the 68th minute. Arjen Robben, who made his first appearance of the season, came on in the 65th minute and needed just 7 minutes to open his account and make it 3-0. Bayern Munich’s win against the (then) 2nd placed Hertha Berlin makes them the only team to have taken 12 points from the opening four matches.

Though Bayern’s record against most teams in the Bundesliga is pretty stellar, their sixteen match unbeaten run against Hamburg (W13 D3) remains an impressive feat. It comes as no surprise then that the reigning champions are huge favourites for this match, and the bookies’ price of 2/11 is not too desirable. We don’t find much value in a bet here, unless adding them to an accumulator. Instead, we feel the value here is in the “to win to nil” market. Though Bayern did concede in a moment of lapse against Ingolstadt back in gameweek 3, their back four has never looked stronger and their 71% possession against Hertha last time out resulted in the Berliners registering just two attempts on goal, both of which were desperate efforts from outside the box.

Considering that Bayern Munich have won six of their last seven competitive matches to nil, including a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the German Super Cup, we don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that they should be able to keep a clean sheet against one of the worst form teams in the Bundesliga, who have failed to score in two consecutive matches.

As such, Bayern Munich to win to nil at 4/5 and Bayern Munich to win 3-0 at 6/1 are our choice bets for this match.