Ingolstadt vs Hertha Berlin Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Ingolstadt drew 1-1 away to Hamburg in their opener under new coach Markus Kauczinski, who joined them from 2. Bundesliga side Karlsruher. Kauczinksi has vowed that he will not be changing much about the side heading into this season, with former coach Hasenhüttl’s successful formula from last season being a core component to their main aim: to stay up. Ingolstadt are, however, without three key members of the back four which helped Ingolstadt end last season with the Bundesliga’s joint best defensive record outside of the top three: Benjamin Hübner, Danny da Costa,and Ramazan Özcan have all parted ways with the club.

After spending about twenty weeks within the Bundesliga’s top four before falling away from the pack, the question most want answered moving forward is,whether Hertha Berlin are capable of repeating this effort all the way through to the business end of the season this time around. Hertha took just two points from their last seven Bundesliga matches (D2 L5) and their eventual 7th placed finish, their highest since the 2008/2009 season, and subsequent qualification to the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round, came as a bittersweet end to their campaign. Hertha scraped through to the DFB Pokal (German League Cup) second round last weekend via penalties against 3. Liga side Jahn Regensburg, and have already suffered the disappointment of early elimination from the Europa League with a 3-2 defeat on aggregate to Danish side Brondby. Hertha Berlin won their opener 2-1 in dramatic fashion: Freiburg’s Nicolas Hofler equalised in the 93rd minute with a headed goal from a corner. From kick-off Hertha sent men forward on the offense with substitute Julian Schieber scoring the winner in the 95th minute.

While both sides were modest with their spending during the transfer window – most of Ingolstadt’s in-comings were free transfers – there is a stark contrast between the quality of outbound players from each side and the clubs respective ambitions for this season. While Ingolstadt maintained an impressive home record in the Bundesliga last season, losing just one of their last nine at home (W5 D3 L1), we are yet to see the long term consequence of selling their core defensive trio (Benjamin Hübner, Danny da Costa and Ramazan Özcan) and holding onto the “survival” mentality rather than aiming higher. Ingolstadt’s rise to prominence in the Bundesliga stemmed from their defensive prowess as opposed to scoring a high numbers of goals. Seeing as their back four is completely changed and inexperienced together, we feel that their home form may take a turn for the worse. Berlin may have finished last season in awful form away from home, drawing one and losing four of their last five, but these were trickier, high pressure fixtures as all eyes were upon them in their aim to finish in the top four, a feat they are hoping to repeat.

While this match may be close when considering only home and away form, over 2.5 goals seems a clear and decent value market taking recent results into account. Four of Ingolstadt’s last five home matches and three of Hertha’s last five Bundesliga matches had over 2.5 goals scored. Combine this with the fact that Hertha are unbeaten against Ingolstadt in all competitive meetings between them, winning three and drawing three, makes over 2.5 goals at 27/20 and Hertha 2-1 win at 10/1 with bet365 our choice bets for this match.