Lech Poznan vs FK Qarabag Predictions

• Qarabag are the seeded team here and reached the last-32 of the Conference League last season.
• Qarabag are unbeaten in their last six Champions League away ties (Won 2, Drawn 4).
• Polish clubs have an awful record in this competition in recent years.

Qarabag can upset Poznan backers 

Polish clubs have had little success in the Champions League recently and Lech Poznan don’t look likely to reverse that trend ahead of their first qualifying round first leg against Qarabag on Tuesday.

Kolejorz took the title by five points last season in what was a pretty ordinary league. The Ekstraklasa’s decline was demonstrated by the fact that Poland’s only representative in the group stages of any of Uefa’s three competitions – Legia Warsaw – finished bottom of the pile on four points.

By contrast, Azeri football is on the up and Qarabag flew the flag well in the Conference League, where they reached the last-32 only to fall to eventual semi-finalists Marseille. Gurban Gurbanov’s men are a well-organised outfit, capable of stunning teams on the counter-attack and can get a result to take back with them to Azerbaijan.

Horsemen have had the whip hand over Polish clubs

The Horsemen are undefeated in their last six away Champions League ties, albeit against modest opposition, but Lech Poznan are hardly top class. The hosts lost two of their three warm-up matches for this game, including against a Widzew Lodz team that was promoted from the 1 Liga last season.

If further comparison were needed, Qarabag knocked then-Polish champions Legia out of the Europa League qualifiers with a 3-0 away win in 2020.

Qarabag could win this if they show enough ambition, although they too are out of season and coming off a series of friendlies, so our belief is they will probably settle for a draw. A 1-1 forecast looks good for this first-leg, which could be cagey at the outset.