Luton Town vs Gillingham Predictions

Luton continued to bowl along in front on Tuesday night, as they went away to Valley Parade and returned south with all three points in the bag. The Hatters extended their lead at the top of League One to five points, thanks to a draw between Barnsley and Sunderland. There are nine games to go, though it’s looking like the title is very much Luton’s to lose.

The positive comments have been flying Luton’ way this season and in all honesty, it’s hard to disagree with hardly any of them. The Hatters have simply gone about their business in the right way. Last season, they began to build a side that would be capable of doing well in League One; they’ve since added a few players here and there and have thus gone from strength to strength. They’ve adopted an attack-minded approach that has worked a treat; they’ve created chances for fun and have found it very tough to stop scoring goals, especially on their own patch.

In front of a home crowd is where Luton have been virtually irresistible this season, so it’s easy to fear the worst for Gillingham, who’re in danger of being sucked back into the bottom four after their defeat last time out. As things stand, the Hatters are League One’s highest scorers on home soil, as they’ve notched an impressive 44 goals in 18 games at Kenilworth Road. Unsurprisingly, they also boast a pleasing average of 1.97 expected goals for. At the other end of proceedings, they’ve surrendered an average of 0.92 expected goals and have shipped an average of just 0.67 goals.

While Luton, who have the best home record in the division, have been imperious on their own patch, Gillingham have found it tough to get going on the road. By accumulating 22 points on their travels, Steve Lovell’s men have a middle-of-the-road away record, though they’ve generally struggled away against the big teams, especially from a defensive point of view. The Gills have lost away against Barnsley, Sunderland and Charlton, conceding a total of eight goals. They did somehow beat Portsmouth on the road, while they drew against Doncaster, though they shipped three goals in doing so and were very lucky.

In terms of their underlying numbers, Gillingham have come up short away against the big teams. In five away matches against the current top six, Lovell’s men have surrendered an average of 2.56 expected goals, which tells us that they’ve found it very, very tough to compete defensively.

With Gillingham having struggled big time on the road against the top teams, particularly from a defensive point of view, there are a couple of bets that catch the eye. Firstly, ‘Luton to Score Over 2.5 Goals’ gets the nod, while ‘Luton to Score Over 3.5 Goals’ is also worth a stab. Sunderland recently made light work of scoring four against Gillingham and if anyone can do the same then it’s League One’s most prolific side. The Hatters have been nothing short of exceptional going forward at home this season, so much so that they can dismantle a Gills’ rear-guard that has been there for the taking against the top teams.