Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati Predictions

• Cincinnati have hugely outperformed their underlying numbers this season, particularly away from home
• Orlando have won five of nine home games, restricting opposition chances
• The visitors have the 10th-best record in the Eastern Conference in terms of Expected Points

Issues for Orlando to exploit

These two sides head into this clash having each won consecutive games on the road, but it’s the home side who are best placed to get a result this weekend.

Cincinnati are flying high in the Eastern Conference, but their underlying numbers haven’t been all that impressive. They have the 10th-best record in terms of Expected Points, while their numbers suggest they concede better chances than they create, with an xG of 24.9 compared to an xG Against of 29.4.

Cincinnati have won six and lost four of 11 trips, but they’ve vastly outperformed their underlying numbers in those results. Meanwhile, Orlando have conceded an impressive 9.6 xG across nine home matches, while the hosts average 2.33 goals per game at their own ground.

While Orlando lost to Chicago Fire in their previous home game, they have won two of their last three at home. The hosts have won five times at home this term, so back them to exploit Cincinnati’s underwhelming away performances.