Plymouth Argyle vs Gillingham Predictions

Despite taking the lead not once but twice on Saturday, Plymouth come into this fixture off the back of a defeat. Derek Adams’ men have now lost two on the spin, so they’ll be hoping to regain the winning thread when they welcome Gillingham to Home Park..

Saturday’s result will have been a very bitter pill for Plymouth to take, especially since they scored two goals and held the lead twice, but on the balance of play, they didn’t exactly deserve to win. Offensively, their efforts were more than reasonable, so much so that that they were indeed good value for a couple of goals, but they once again looked easy to get at in the defensive third.

The bottom line is, unless Derek Adams’ men tighten up defensively, then they’re going to continue struggling. However, despite their struggles at the back, this match represents a good opportunity for them to regain the winning thread. Gillingham are very poor at the back, so if Plymouth can muster an attacking performance not dissimilar to the one that they delivered on Saturday (and sharpen up slightly in defence), then a second home win of the season could be forthcoming.

On paper, it looks as though Gillingham may have been a tad unlucky not to win at the weekend. Steve Lovell’s men first held a two-goal lead and even though they were pegged back, the Gills managed to go ahead in the 88^th minute. Doncaster equalised three minutes later, making it seem like the visitors were hard done by, though their overall efforts in the game barely merited a point let alone all three. Doncaster’s expected goal supremacy of +3.74 says it all really.

As usual, Gillingham gave lots of chances away on Saturday, which has been the theme of their away campaign this season. At times they’ve got competitive in the final third and they do have some very capable forwards, such as Tom Eaves and Josh Parker, though their defending has been very poor. They’re conceding an average of 2.2 expected goals on the road, while their average expected goal difference on the road is -1.17.

Both on paper and realistically, Plymouth and Gillingham are two poor defensive teams; both enjoy (and will probably continue to enjoy) promising moments in the final third, but anything they’ve tended to create has gone to waste thanks to poor defending. They’re averaging 4.23 expected goals between them in their respective home and away games this season. Consider all of this in conjunction with the prices on offer and ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ stands out.