Port Vale vs Sunderland Predictions

As things stand, Port Vale aren’t as high up the League Two table as they’d ideally like to be, though they do come into this match in decent form. Sunday’s hosts are unbeaten in five (in all competitions), while they’ve won three of their last five at home. Facing League One Sunderland side won’t be easy, but with a home crowd behind them, Neil Aspin’s men will be confident of competing.

There’s been improvements made at Vale Park over the last month or so; Neil Aspin’s side conceded for the first time in five matches when drawing 2-2 with Notts County last weekend, while they’ve avoided defeat in each of their last five. Scoring goals is proving to be a bit of a problem, as they’ve notched more than once in just three of their ten matches in League Two, though they’ve been conceding multiple goals far less regularly than they were at one point.

In terms of what they’ve achieved on home soil, it’s not been a vintage season for Port Vale. Sunday’s hosts have won just four of their nine home matches in League Two, while their underlying stats don’t exactly paint them in the most favourable light. In front of a home crowd, Vale are conceding 1.94 expected goals on average, while they’re not doing enough at the other end to completely counteract such defensive weaknesses. Moreover, the fact that the hosts have conceded at 1.89+ expected goals in each of their last four home games, giving up an average of 2.6 during that time, is worrying.

Sunderland have been ticking along very nicely of late, so much so that they’ve climbed up to second in the League One table. Jack Ross’ men have won each of their last six in all competitions, while they’re now unbeaten in nine. Having kept four consecutive clean sheets leading up to this match, the Black Cats will be confident of overcoming their League Two hosts.

On the face of it, Sunderland are performing well at both ends of the pitch, and while that’s not completely untrue, they’ve probably not been quite as good on their travels as the results would have us believe. Ross’ side have lost just once on their travels this season, but the underlying data tells us that they’ve been far from infallible. Sunderland are averaging a modest 1.25 expected goals for on the road, while they’re giving up an average of 1.64. In each of their last two away matches, the Black Cats were somewhat fortunate to get the clean sheet, so there’s hope for the hosts.

From a betting point of view, at the prices, ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ stands out. Everything tells us that Port Vale are unlikely to be strong enough at the back to cope with Sunderland’s attack, though given the defensive performances of Sunderland on the road, Port Vale, who’ve often done plenty going forward at home this season, can get competitive. In summary, with the hosts surrendering 1.94 expected goals on their own patch and with Sunderland giving up 1.64 on their travels, it’s worth supporting a high-scoring game at Vale Park on Sunday.