Portugal vs Spain Predictions

• Portugal drew both of their knockout games at Euro 2024
• The Portuguese beat Spain on penalties in the Nations League final last year
• Spain have drawn competitive clashes with Turkey, Portugal, the Netherlands and Cape Verde in the last 18 months

European champions face their biggest test yet

Spain have eased through the opening two rounds of the World Cup, reaching the last 16 without conceding a goal. Incredibly, their 3-0 win over Austria in the last round was the first time they’ve scored more than once in a World Cup knockout game since USA ’94.

However, the European champions face a tougher assignment in the next round, as they meet a Portugal side that beat them in the Nations League final last year.

The Portuguese haven’t quite lived up to their ability at this tournament so far, but Roberto Martinez will set them up to frustrate Spain.

Portugal will take few risks

Portugal won the Nations League on penalties after a 2-2 draw in Germany, scoring with their only two shots on target. The Spanish dominated proceedings, with 2.14 Expected Goals to Portugal’s 1.0, but Martinez’s men were able to dig in and force the game to go the distance.

Portugal’s knock-out matches at Euro 2024 both went to penalties after goalless draws; they beat Slovenia on spot kicks before falling short against France.

Their game plan should be similar against a stronger Spain side. They’ll look to keep this game tight and hope to create chances on the counter or through set pieces. Since the start of 2025, Spain have shared score draws with the Netherlands (twice), Portugal and Turkey.

Portugal have suffered only two defeats across their 26 matches since their Euro 2024 exit, and they can hold their own against a Spain side that haven’t been at their best in the final third at this tournament.

Veiga is a growing threat for Portugal

Renato Veiga had two shots against Portugal, and the 0.48 xG he generated from those two chances is more than all but three members of the Portugal squad have generated all tournament.

Veiga was denied his best chance by a foul committed by Nikola Vlasic, which led to the penalty that Cristiano Ronaldo converted. He was held back from an open shot right in front of goal, with Portugal consistently targeting him from corners.

Aston Villa’s set piece coach, Austin MacPhee, is filling that role for Portugal, and he’s clearly looking to Veiga as a huge threat in those situations. Cape Verde came close to stealing a win from Spain through a well-worked corner, so Veiga looks like a massive price at 16/1 to score here, given how routinely Portugal are aiming for him in the box.