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Spain vs Italy Predictions

Published on 7:00pm GMT 20 June 2024

  • 19:00
  • Expired
  • Arena AufSchalke
Spain
Italy
  • ITV
  • ITVX
  • STV

Spain and Both Teams To Score

Reason for tip

Luis de la Fuente’s side looked frighteningly good in their 3-0 win over Croatia last Saturday and should overcome an Italy side that have lost four of their seven games against top-10-ranked nations since 2022. Spain were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Croatia and Italy, who have seen both teams score in their last five European finals matches, can get on the scoresheet again here too.

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Spain 2-1

Reason for tip

Spain have beaten Italy 2-1 on each occasion they have met since the Euro 2020 finals. Italy tend to score and concede these days, but rarely do they ever ship more than twice in a game.

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Lamine Yamal To Score Anytime

Reason for tip

Lamine Yamal has two goals in eight senior international appearances so far and may just add to that tally against an Italy side that has not kept a clean sheet in their last five European Championship finals matches. The Barcelona prodigy had six touches inside the opposition box, three shots – two from inside the penalty area – and created three chances including an assist against Croatia.

 

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Spain vs Italy Predictions

  • Spain have beaten Italy 2-1 on each occasion they have met since the Euro 2020 finals
  • Italy have lost four of their seven games against top-10-ranked nations since 2022
  • In 86 minutes against Croatia, Lamine Yamal had 6 touches inside the opposition box, 3 shots, 3 chances created and an assist

Spanish can spy a place in the last-16

Spain and Italy will be bidding to seal a place in the knockout phase of Euro 2024 when the familiar foes clash in a pivotal Group B game in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday.

Both teams won their opening contests with Spain enjoying a more comfortable ride in beating Croatia 3-0 than the Azzurri did when coming from behind to beat Albania 2-1.

La Roja roared into top gear midway through the first half to cruelly exploit gaps in Croatia’s back four and put the result beyond doubt before half-time.

La Roja should resume their power over possession

The final stats of the game showed that Luis da la Fuente’s side had less possession than their opponents for the first time in a competitive fixture since the Euro 2008 final versus Germany, ending Spain’s run of having the lion’s share of the ball for 136 consecutive games.

But they will not care about that one bit and normal service will probably be resumed when they take on an Italian team that they have become used to dominating.

When they beat Roberto Mancini’s side 2-1 in Milan to move into the 2021 Nations League Final, Spain enjoyed an incredible 75% possession – albeit much of that was after Leonardo Bonucci’s 42nd-minute red card.

Then two years later they had over 60% against the Italians in another Nations League semi-final win and once more the final score was 2-1.

Both teams tend to score when these meet

Spain have scored 14 goals and conceded six across their last seven European Championship finals matches, so it would be no surprise to see De La Fuente’s side score and concede in this contest too.

They should probably have shipped at least once against Croatia, but Bruno Petkovic missed a second-half penalty and then saw his make-up effort ruled out for encroachment at the original spot-kick.

That award went against Spain after they were caught out playing from the back and Italy will almost certainly be looking to press them when they can in this game.

The pressing of Luciano Spalletti’s side was a feature of their win over Albania with Italy carving out several chances after winning possession in their opponent’s defensive third.

Barcelona’s boy wonder can add to his tally

Yet, despite an encouraging overall showing from their attackers, Italy had to rely on a defender and a midfielder for their goals. Spain still have the sharper players in forward positions and that should give them the edge when decisive moments arrive in the box.

One player who looks like he could make a real difference whenever he plays is 16-year-old prodigy Lamine Yamal. The Barcelona starlet had six touches inside the opposition box, three shots – two from inside the penalty area and created three chances including an assist against Croatia.

He has two goals in eight senior international appearances so far and may just add to that tally against an Italy side that has not kept a clean sheet in their last five European Championship finals matches.

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