Spezia vs Sampdoria Predictions

• Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals scored in three of their six league games this season.
• No Serie A team has scored fewer goals than Sampdoria’s three this campaign.
• However, Spezia are the league’s least creative outfit according to expected goals, and have also managed an incredibly low nine shots on target in their six outings.

Both bosses feeling the pressure

It may be a tad early in the season to describe any game as a six-pointer, but Saturday’s Serie A fixture between Spezia and Sampdoria comes close; having won on the opening weekend, the hosts are winless in their subsequent five, while Samp are yet to post a victory since the August restart. Neither Luca Gotti nor Marco Giampaolo have been in their respective jobs for long, yet both may soon be feeling the pressure in league where coaching reigns typically do not last.

Spezia have avoided defeat in their three home games this term, but three consecutive losses on the road – all without scoring – have prevented Gotti from making a strong start. While Spezia’s five points mean several sides are worse off, the underlying figures are worrying; having conceded 71 goals last term, Spezia have conceded 10 already this campaign – more than all but three teams. Expected goals for and against figures mark them out as the league’s worst attacking outfit and third-worst defensive unit, and they have managed a paltry nine shots on target all season.

No Serie A side have scored fewer goals than Sampdoria this season, with their three strikes putting them level with Monza. Samp’s away record is dire; they have lost on five of their last six Serie A road trips, scoring just two goals. Sampdoria were beaten 1-0 on their last trip to Spezia in January, in a match which contained just two efforts on target – if the teams’ recent efforts are anything to go by, a similarly dull affair could be on the cards.

Low-scoring affair likely

Given the dire attacking returns of both Spezia and Sampdoria – and with the former sure to regress after averaging just 1.5 shots on target per game this season, backing under 2.5 match goals appears a smart play.

Meanwhile, there have been four draws in the last nine combined matches played by Spezia and Sampdoria, making a 1-1 stalemate a decent correct score prediction.

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