Valencia vs Alaves Predictions

• At least two goals have been scored in four of Alaves’ last five La Liga games and each of their last two on the road
• There has been three and six goals in Valebcia’s last two La Liga matches
• Valencia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has kept 12 clean sheets in La Liga this season, is suspended for this game

Mamardashvili miss could make it more interesting

Two clubs with reputations for keeping things tight could produce a couple of goals in Sunday’s La Liga clash between Europe-chasing Valencia and relegation-threatened Alaves.

Los Che have averaged only 1.81 goals per game at their Mestalla matches this season while there have been exactly two goals scored when Alaves play away, on average.

But the absence of suspended Valencia shot-stopper Giorgi Mamardashvili could make a big difference here. The Georgian has prevented more goals in terms of expected goals (xG) on target faced than any other keeper in La Liga.

Alaves could be a dangerous opponent if survival is assured

There is another major reason why the goal expectation for this clash could rise before it kicks off, which is linked to Real Madrid’s match against Cadiz the day before. Alaves will be assured of top-flight survival if Cadiz fail to beat Carlo Ancelotti’s side and that could lead to coach Luis Garcia letting the handbrake off.

Their last two results, a 2-0 home win over Atletico Madrid and a 3-0 victory over Celta Vigo, suggest they are capable of producing some good moments anyway. And they probably become more dangerous to Valencia if they are guaranteed to stay up.

Backing over 1.5 goals rarely comes at odds of better than 1/2, and in these circumstances, the price looks well worth taking with a 1-1 draw possible due to Valencia beginning to leak goals again after a run of four clean sheets in five.