Barnsley vs Burton Albion Predictions

Much like the league leaders, Barnsley, who currently sit in second, continued to move forward with haste at the weekend, as they beat Wycombe at this venue. The Tykes have now won each of their last three league matches, while they’re unbeaten since early December. Keeping this in mind, Burton probably won’t go to Oakwell feeling too confident.

To be completely honest, it’s very difficult to criticise anything that Barnsley have done in recent weeks. At a crucial part of the season, Daniel Stendel’s men have built momentum and have thus put themselves in pole position (alongside Luton) to go up automatically.

By scoring goals for fun, the Tykes are making picking up regular wins look easy; they’ve scored at least twice in each of their last seven league matches, six of which they’ve won. They’ve also easily bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in five of those six wins, so it’s difficult to say that they’ve not deserved to collect so many points of late.

However, regardless of how good Stendel’s men have looked in recent weeks, all good things must come to an end, while Tuesday’s hosts have shown a few signs of weakness at home in recent times. Last time out, the Tykes offered plenty going forward and were deserving winners, but they did concede against Wycombe, while they also gave away 1.38 expected goals. Furthermore, they also struggled to contain Rochdale at this venue recently, as they against conceded and shipped a rather hefty 2.24 expected goals, so they’re not quite infallible.

Burton don’t exactly come into this match in sparkling form; the visitors have won just one of their last six league matches, but they’ve only lost once during that time, while their recent defensive efforts have been very encouraging. Against a tidy Shrewsbury side, the Brewers fought back from a goal down to earn a point at the weekend, conceding a very respectable 0.85 expected goals in the process.

In addition to a respectable effort at the weekend, Burton have avoided defeat in each of their last five on the road. The only top side that they’ve faced during that time is Doncaster, but the fact that they went to Keepmoat and held their own against one of the best attacking teams in the division is pleasing. Additionally, in four of their last five on the road, Burton have conceded 0.85 expected goals or less, so it’s fair to say that they’re doing a more than reasonable job of nullifying their opponents.

In the betting, ‘Burton +1 Handicap’ appeals at the prices. The visitors have shown that they can offer a good level of defensive resistance on the road of late, while the hosts, as good as they have been, have not always been perfect against the lesser side at home this season, as draw against Wimbledon, Walsall and Plymouth suggest. They also beat the likes of Gillingham, Rochdale and Wycombe by just a single goal.

At the end of the day, Barnsley are a top side in League One and it may well be that they continue moving forward by beating Burton comfortably, but all things considered, the hosts look somewhat short in the betting. Likewise, the visitors appear to have a slightly better chance than the pries suggest, so a small punt on the Brewers to avoid defeat makes sense.