Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Mainz 05’s disappointing 2-0 defeat at home to strugglers Werder Bremen last weekend means that a repeat of last season’s European qualification seems unlikely. Mainz have won just one of their last six Bundesliga (W1 D2 L3) and are without a win on the road since September.

Hosts Bayer Leverkusen should be looking to take advantage of the visitors’ poor form and build on last Friday’s emphatic 3-1 win away to Augsburg – a win which has given Leverkusen’s search for Champions League qualification a new lease of life.

Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites here at 4/6 with bet365. While a bet on the hosts should be profitable given Mainz’s poor away form (W2 D1 L7), we feel there’s better value backing “No Goal before 27:00” at 5/6 for the following reasons: both Leverkusen’s and Augsburg’s respective home and away scoring trends show that goals in the first half hour are significantly more infrequent that in any other duration of the match. Leverkusen have scored just 4 of their 20 goals at home in the first half an hour (20%) – almost half of Leverkusen’s goals have actually been scored in the last 30 minutes (45%) – while Mainz have also struggled to take an early lead with just 2 of their 8 goals on the road have been scored in the first half hour (25%).

Leverkusen forward Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez does find himself in form with 5 goals (two braces and one goal) over his last three Bundesliga appearances. However, just one of these five were also scored in the first 30 minutes (20%). Hernandez’s return to form should no doubt give Leverkusen a huge boost and the Mexican forward seems decent value to score anytime at 21/20 with bet365.

Regarding a correct score bet, Mainz head into this off the back of six consecutive away defeats – their worst run since 2004 – and hold the joint third worst defense in the Bundesliga. As Leverkusen have found scoring form again and Mainz are lacking any, failing to score in five of their last seven (72%) on the road, we feel there’s some value to be had backing a 3-0 Leverkusen win at 12/1 here.