Bradford vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

It looked as though Bradford could be slipping back towards last place when they were on the end of two heavy defeats in quick succession a few weeks ago, but the Bantams have since reacted well and are now unbeaten in three. They remain in an unflattering league position, but David Hopkin’s men are still well in with a chance of survival, which is something that seemed unlikely not that long ago.

Since losing heavily against Southend back in January, Bradford have delivered three pleasing performances. Firstly, they offered more than their hosts when drawing away at Burton, while they once again looked good in the final third when beating Shrewsbury in a high-scoring thriller at Valley Parade. Moreover, the Bantams continued to offer more than their opponents going forward when drawing 0-0 away against Wycombe last time out. After bettering their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of their last three, Saturday’s hosts should be feeling confident.

In fact, if we discount that defeat against Southend, it’s fair to say that Bradford have been doing an excellent job of offering more than their opponents for some time at Valley Parade. Hopkin’s side have now won five of their last six in front of a home crowd, while they’ve bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in five out of the last six too.

While the Bantams have made a habit of creating more than their opponents at home, Fleetwood have struggled to match teams away from home. They did batter a lacklustre Wimbledon side when last in action away from home, though too much shouldn’t be read into that result. Prior to that win, the Cod Army were without a win in eight on the road, six of which they lost. They also failed to find the net in five of those eight.

Furthermore, Joey Barton’s men have been outperformed in terms of expected goals in eight of their last nine on the road, so it’s not difficult to see why they’ve collected three points just once during that time.

When we consider the above in conjunction with the early prices available ahead of Saturday’s game, it’s very easy to side with the hosts. Bradford’s recent home efforts have been much more pleasing than Fleetwood’s on the road, so they really ought to be shorter in the betting. Backing the Bantams to record a sixth victory in their last seven at Valley Parade represents an appetising slice of value.