Cologne vs Hamburg Predictions

After dropping out of the Bundesliga last season, Koln would’ve been hoping for a straightforward return to the top flight, and as things stands, it looks like the Billy Goats are cruising their way to securing automatic promotion. Koln are currently seven points clear at the top, while there’s nine points between them and 3^rd. A win on Monday night and Markus Anfang’s men can start planning for next season.

Last time out, Koln once again showed their quality going forward, as they created chances at will and scored four goals away against Duisburg, though their defensive limitations were very much exposed, as they shipped no less than four goals. In truth, Koln deserved to win that game; they were the more proactive side, while they created more than their opponents, but they failed to resist when it mattered most, which is a slight concern ahead of this match.

Even at home, Koln have tended to give a bit too much away; they’ve conceded an average of 1.29 goals, while they’ve conceded at least once in all but three of their 14 matches at RheinEnergieSTADION. Fortunately, they’ve offered a colossal amount going forward, as they’ve scored a staggering 44 goals, scoring at least three in each of their last four at home. Stunningly, Koln have scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight home matches, while they’ve scored at least four in five of those eight. Unsurprisingly, they boast a very pleasing average of 2.42 expected goals for in front of their own fans.

Hamburg have been useful away from home, but they’ve come nowhere near to delivering the sort of attacking performances that Koln have at this venue. The visitors come into this match unbeaten in two on their travels, but they’ve only won one of those, while they’ve now won just one of their last six travelling matches. Furthermore, they’ve conceded at least twice in four of those.

An average of 1.57 goals and 1.46 expected goals for tells us that Hamburg are useful going forward on the road, but they’ve not been able to hurt teams like Koln have, so it easy to envisage the visitors being outscored on Monday evening. Against a reasonably open Koln side, who’ve often conceded at home, Hamburg can make headway, though their overall efforts on the road this season, where they’ve scored exactly half the goals Koln have scored at home, suggest that they’ll struggle to overcome the rampant hosts.

Taking everything into consideration, the bet that stands out is ‘Koln to Win & Both Teams to Score’. They’re not known for keeping clean sheets, but the hosts have offered considerably more going forward than Hamburg this season, while they’ve become experts at outscoring their visitors at RheinEnergieSTADION.