Cologne vs Sandhausen Predictions

When forgotten man Anthony Modeste scored an emotional goal to give his side a two-goal lead with less than 20 minutes remaining away at Paderborn last weekend, it looked for all to see that Koln were well on their way to securing another three points. Though, thanks to a hugely spirited comeback form their hosts, which saw the Billy Goats concede three goals in the space of 12 minutes, they returned home empty handed. As a result of that defeat, Koln find themselves five points behind league leaders Hamburg.

They were unfortunate to lose last weekend, make no mistake about that, but you could also argue that they were lucky to be winning by a two-goal margin in the first place. Koln certainly weren’t at their creative best, while they didn’t exactly cover themselves in defensive glory either. That said, the fact remains that they were unlucky to lose, as an expected goal difference of +0.01 suggests.

Fortunately, the promotion chasers are now back in front of their own fans, which is where they’ve been so good this season. The Billy Goats did lose at RheinEnergieSTADION recently, but they’ve won four of their last five home matches convincingly, so we shouldn’t worry too much about their recent blot on their record.

Ahead of a match against a Sandhausen side that hasn’t exactly flourished on the road, Koln’s home attacking efforts bode very well. Going forward, Koln have been virtually unstoppable in front of their own fans this season. They’ve created chances at will, as they’re averaging 2.27 expected goals for, while they’ve scored a staggering average of 2.91 goals in front of their own fans. By keeping just two clean sheets on their own patch, Koln have hardly flourished defensively, but their attacking efforts have almost always outweighed their defensive deficiencies.

The visitors come into this match with a poor recent away record. Sandhausen have lost four of their last five travelling matches, while they’re now without a win in seven on the road. During that time, they’ve been blighted by defensive weakness, as they’ve shipped a total of 16 goals (in their last seven away matches) and have conceded at least twice in all but one of those seven. Having shipped multiple goals against some average sides of late, Sandhausen are unlikely to keep an almighty Koln attack at bay on Saturday.

However, while it’s virtually impossible to envisage anything other than the Koln attackers enjoying themselves in the final third, it would be foolish to write the visitors off offensively. For all they do seemingly have sieve-like defence on their travels, Sandhausen have competed going forward, as they’ve scored in all but one of their last seven away matches, while they’ve only failed to find the net in two travelling games all season. Such a record is pleasing, especially when considered in conjunction with Koln’s rather weak defensive record at home.

From a betting point of view, it’s easy to feel that there’s value to be had by combining a home win with ‘Both Teams to Score’. Koln should have more than enough about them to overpower their defensively inept visitors, though they rarely go without conceding at home, while the visitors, for all they cannot match Koln for quality, are no mugs going forward. Goals (at both ends of the pitch) are never far away when the Billy Goats are involved, so all things considered, backing ‘Koln to Win & Both Teams to Score’ stands out as the best option ahead of Saturday’s game at RheinEnergieSTADION.