Deportivo La Coruna vs Malaga Predictions

It looked for a while as though Depor would miss out on a place in the top six, though thanks to a combination of some good results and good fortune late in the regular season, José Luis Martí men managed to bag 6^th place ahead of Cadiz. They’ll fancy themselves to get a good result at home, though facing the highest play-off finishers will be anything but easy.

Depor will be pleased that the first leg of this play-off is at home, as that is where they’ve been at their best this season. They were by no means poor on their travels during the regular campaign, but they weren’t always strong going forward, while they’ve performed well in that respect at Riazor, especially of late.

All in all, it’s fair to say that Depor were very solid at home during the regular season; they won ten, drew eight and lost only three of their 21 home games, while they scored 31 goals, which in what is a relatively low-scoring league is pleasing. Interestingly, only three Segunda teams scored more home goals than Depor prior to the play-offs. Only three sides conceded less goals at home too.

Depor’s efforts at home have been pleasing, but they’re up against one of the best travelling sides in the division. Only Granada, who went up automatically, and Albacete, who finished 4^th, matched Malaga in terms of points taken on the road this season. No team accumulated more travelling points than Wednesday’s visitors, while only one Segunda team won more away games. Offensively, they were sound, while they were strong at the back too. Only second-place finishers Granada conceded less goals than Malaga away from home.

Given that both teams finished inside the top six, this is no easy game to call, especially since they’ve both been good in their respective home and away games. However, at the current prices, it’s very easy to side with the visitors to avoid defeat.

Not only were Malaga good on the road this season, conceding an average of just 0.85 goals, but they also avoided defeat both home and away against Depor. Moreover, when the pair met last, it was Malaga who were the better side, as they posted 1.24 expected goals for and conceded only 0.82.

Make no mistake about it, on their day, Depor can beat anyone (at this level) at home and they may well win this match, though given that they’ve struggled to impose themselves twice against Malaga this season, coupled with the fact that they’ve won only two of their last ten at Riazor, they look slightly short. At the same time, the visitors look a tad overpriced, so a bet on ‘Malaga +1 Handicap’ represents a slice of value.