Extremadura vs Lugo Predictions

They’re not quite over the line, though it’s looking more and more likely that Extremadura will grace the second division with their presence next season. They’re currently seven points clear of the drop, so if they avoid defeat in this fixture, they’ll be home and dry. As for Lugo, well, the visitors’ survival is less secure, as they sit just three points above the drop-zone, which means that they really cannot afford to lose this match.

If they do stay up, which now looks likely, then Extremadura have done so thanks to an excellent run of form when they needed it most. Over the last few weeks, Sunday’s hosts have battled hard to win six of their last seven. During that time, they’ve beaten top-half sides such as Almeria, Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna, so Manuel Alfredo Mosquera Bastida’s men will surely fancy themselves to get the better of lowly Lugo.

It took Extremadura a long time to get going at home this season, but they’ve recently started to play well in front of their own fans. They lost last time out at Estadio Francisco de la Hera, though given that they posted 1.35 expected goals for and conceded only 1.17, it’s fair to say that they were unfortunate. Prior to that defeat, they’d won three on the bounce at home, scoring five goals and conceding none in the process.

Lugo haven’t exactly been terrible away from home of late; they’ve lost just one of their last six travelling matches, though they’ve only won once during that time and are seemingly struggling in front of goal. The goals certainly haven’t flown in on the road for Sunday’s visitors, who’ve notched just 13 times in 19 away games. Creativity has also been a problem for José Eloy Jiménez Moreno’s side, who average just 0.7 expected goals for on their travels.

That said, they’ve not been too poor at the back, as they’ve surrendered an average of only 1.11 goals away from home. What’s more, Lugo have conceded more than once in just one of their last six travelling games, so they’re not exactly pushovers.

If we look at both the home efforts of Extremadura and the away-day exploits of Lugo, we can see that the pair share a lack of attacking power. Sunday’s hosts have scored only 1.06 goals on average at home this season, while Lugo have notched an average of just 0.68 on the road. If we consider this in conjunction with the fact that they average a combined 1.84 expected goals in their respective home and away games, it becomes easy to feel that a low-scoring affair is more likely than the current prices suggest. On this basis, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ gets the nod.