FBC Melgar vs Caracas Predictions

Tuesday’s Copa Libertadores final qualification round, first leg clash sees Peruvians Melgar doing battle with Venezuelans Caracas. The hosts will be looking to make their home advantage count ahead of the return leg.

When Melgar were drawn to Chilean powerhouse Universidad de Chile in the last round, it’s fair to say it looked like being an early exit for them, but Los Rojinegros did fantastically well to advance, first winning 1-0 on home soil with their high altitude, home advantage, before defending with their lives in a second leg 0-0 draw.

Now up against what on paper looks an easier opponent, the hosts will be confident of making it through to the group stage, but if they are to do so, collecting a positive result in this home leg is of paramount importance. Having lost just 2 of their last 18 home fixtures, winning 14 times in the process, confidence can certainly be high in doing exactly that and those taking to the pitch will do so in positive spirits.

Meanwhile, visitors Caracas caused something of an upset themselves in the last round, eliminating Ecuadorian outfit Delfin. The Venezuelans were quite lucky to advance in all honesty, after coming under sustained pressure in both legs, but were able to make it through courtesy of the away goal rule, after a 1-1 aggregate draw.

The visitors are now dreaming of their own place in the group stage but there can be little doubting they’ll have to improve in these two matches if they are to make it. Indeed, the fact they didn’t really convince against Delfin, coupled with defeats in 5 of their last 8 Libertadores outings, still suggests Caracas are far from a force on the continental scene and come into this tie as slight underdogs.

Ultimately, we didn’t expect either team to make it to the final round of qualification but each party has now been granted a huge opportunity; both from a financial and sporting viewpoint. Over two legs, it should be quite a close tie, with Melgar slight favourites, but taking this as a standalone fixture, there’s no doubting who is more likely to win the match.

With the match set to be played at gruelling altitude, it’s the hosts who really should be edging ahead and at current prices, we really like the look of backing them to win to nil. Caracas will bring an extremely defensive game-plan but Melgar have enough about them to breakthrough and we think they’ll edge what will likely be a tight contest by a 1-0 margin.