Goztepe vs Ankaragucu Predictions

The season is done and dusted as far as Ankaragucu are concerned; Sunday’s visitors are now mathematically safe, so they can relax somewhat. However, Goztepe still have the small matter of survival to take care of. Of the three teams fighting against the drop this weekend, Goztepe are the only ones with safety in their own hands. Quite simply, if they win, they’re safe, though if they fail to get the job done, then their fate will be in the hands of the other sides battling for a place in this division.

If Goztepe are to stay up, then they’ve got some pleasing end-of-season form to thank. It wasn’t long ago that relegation loomed large, though Sunday’s hosts have rallied, avoiding defeat in each of their last four, two of which they’ve won. Last time out, they could only draw against Bursaspor, who their fighting against in the scrap for survival, but they played well, giving little away. They were also unfortunate not to win when drawing 3-3 with Sivasspor prior to that, as they created considerably more than their opponents.

In truth, each of their last three efforts have been solid, so much so that a repeat would likely see them get what they need on Sunday.

Ankaragucu got the desired result last time out, a result that secured their safety, though their recent performances haven’t been great, especially from a defensive point of view. Sunday’s visitors are without a clean sheet in four, during which time they’ve shipped a total of nine goals. They’ve also shipped expected goals figures of 0.79, 2.18, 1.6 and 2.03.

Fortunately, Ankaragucu have managed to get competitive going forward of late, as they’ve notched in each of their last four, scoring a total of seven goals. However, their attacking efforts overall on the road this season have been somewhat disappointing. They average 1.06 goals for away from home, while they average only 0.85 expected goals for. Such numbers are poor when we consider that Sunday’s visitors have surrendered averages of 1.81 and 1.79 on their travels.

Meanwhile, Goztepe average 1.38 goals for at home, as well as 1.45 expected goals for. They’ve also given less away, as averages of 1.19 goals against and 1.07 expected goals against suggest.

When we run the numbers above, it’s tough to oppose the hosts, though they simply represent no value at the current prices. As they’re the only side with something to play for, they’ve been somewhat overstated in the betting. Instead of siding with either team, the bet that stands out as slightly too big at the current odds is ‘Under 2.5 Goals’.

For all the hosts ought to have the quality to get the better of what is essentially a weak visiting side, their overall attacking efforts at home this season haven’t been all that. If we consider their average of 1.45 expected goals for in conjunction with Ankaragucu’s average of just 0.85 on the road, then a low-scoring affair seems more likely than the current betting would have us believe.