Hannover 96 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions

When Hannover regained the winning thread by beating Nurnberg a fortnight ago, they would’ve been hoping to move forward, though it was back to square one last time out, as they disappointingly lost by three goals to nil away against Hoffenheim. Sunday’s hosts will now be looking to take advantage of the fact that this is Frankfurt’s fourth game in ten days.

In truth, it’s very hard to put a positive spin on anything that Hannover have done of late. They did beat bottom-of-the-barrel Nurnberg recently, but that’s not exactly something to shout about, while they’re seemingly making a habit of getting beat without putting up much of a fight. If they deliver a performance not dissimilar to the one that saw them get beat by Hoffenheim last time out, then the strugglers won’t be getting anything from this fixture.

Even on their own patch, Hannover have been nothing short of woeful for some time. Occasionally, they’ve offered a slight threat going forward, but their expected-goals for average of just 1.02 tells us that they’re weak, as does the fact that they’ve scored an average of just 0.82 goals at HDI Arena. A lack of forward potency is certainly a problem, though their biggest problem is a severe lack of defensive solidity. An average of 1.64 goals against on home soil is bad enough, though if we look at the chances they’ve conceded, it’s easy to feel that Sunday’s hosts, who’ve shipped an average of 2.45 expected goals at home this season, should’ve picked the ball out of their own net far more than they have.

Frankfurt haven’t exactly been great on the road this season, but they’d have to be considerably poorer to struggle at HDI Arena on Sunday. The visitors have won none of their last four on the road, but they’re unbeaten in three and have delivered some attacking performances that suggest they ought to really hurt Hannover. A repeat of the effort delivered when they recorded 1.81 expected goals for and scored twice away against Bremen recently would surely be enough to see them through.

In terms of both overall quality and what they’ve achieved this season, Frankfurt are considerably better than Hannover, though if we look at the visitors’ recent defensive efforts on the road, it’s not overly difficult to envisage this match being slightly more complicated than the current prices suggest. Frankfurt come into this game having conceded at least once in all but one of their last five travelling matches, while they’ve shipped expected-goals figures of 1.47, 2.46 and 1.71 on the road of late. Hannover do struggle offensively, but they will be buoyed by the fact that they scored twice in their last home games, while Frankfurt’s recent defensive efforts will at least give them the confidence to get forward.

The bottom line is that this is Frankfurt’s for the taking. If both are their best, then it’s tough to see anything other than an away win, though at the prices, backing the visitors to merely prevail represents little value. Instead, a chance is taken on ‘Frankfurt to Win & Both Teams to Score’ at a decent price. If they continue to defend as they have done in recent away games, then they may have to do it the hard way, though it’s not as if Adi Hütter’s men lack the quality to outscore a Hannover side that is one of the Bundesliga’s worst when it comes to keeping things tight.