Latvia vs North Macedonia Predictions

The bottom two in Group G clash on Monday night, with Latvia hoping to get some points on the board after losing all five games. Meanwhile, North Macedonia have slightly loftier ambitions. The visitors are only four points shy of the top two, while they could close in on a place at Euro 2020 with a win this week. It’s a great chance for the visitors to boost their points tally, but can they kick on following some decent results on the road so far?

Latvia have been poor throughout this group, with the weekend bringing a 6-0 thumping loss to Austria. The problem for the hosts is that they’ve got worse as the qualifying campaign has gone on,  while their record in the Nations League wasn’t great either. They struggled to match teams at their own level, which doesn’t suggest that they can match North Macedonia on Monday night. Having come up short against Andorra and Kazakhstan last autumn, it’s no shock that the hosts are outsiders going into this one.

North Macedonia are climbing up the Nations League ranks, following their excellent form in UEFA’s new competition. They were able to win five of their six games in order to top the pile and secure a playoff place for Euro 2020. They will want to head into those playoffs with a strong group finish, or possibly even an automatic berth at the finals if they hit form. It’s not unthinkable, as the visitors have been resilient so far. They’ve claimed draws at Israel and Slovenia, so they have solid away form behind them.

We expect them to step up a gear in this clash with Latvia, especially after their 3-1 win in the reverse fixture. The visitors should be looking to put the gulf between these two sides on full display. North Macedonia were able to score 14 times across their six Nations League games, scoring at least twice in five of the six. They’ve certainly got goals in them against a poor defence, which sums up Latvia right now.

The hosts have conceded 19 times in just five games, while in their last two alone they’ve shipped 11 to Slovenia and Austria. They seem to be falling apart at the back rather than improving, while their home record is poor. The hosts have lost three on the spin at home, conceding at least three in each across meetings with Georgia, Israel and Slovenia. We think North Macedonia can bag a couple of their own, so we’re backing them to score over 1.5 goals, while we see them claiming a slightly narrower 2-1 win having conceded in both trips so far.