Luton Town vs AFC Wimbledon Predictions

After their defeat at The Valley, it was important for Luton to bounce back on Good Friday, and bounce back is exactly what they did, as they went away to Accrington and returned with all three points, scoring three and conceding none in the process. A win in this fixture would almost certainly see the League One title head to Kenilworth Road.

They’ve been excellent for most of the campaign, but nobody could deny that Luton dropped below their usual level against both Blackpool and Charlton, which is why it was important that they delivered an improved performance last time out. Not only did the Hatters go through the gears at Crown Ground on Saturday evening, but they did so in style, as they brushed Accrington aside, scoring three goals and creating an impressive 4.57 expected goals for. A repeat of that performance would likely see them record another win on Tuesday evening.

As good as Luton have generally been at home this season, some of their recent efforts suggest that they may have to be patient against a resilient and defence-minded AFC Wimbledon. Team such as Gillingham, Rochdale, Blackpool and Coventry have all made the Hatters work hard at Kenilworth Road in recent times. Luton lost none of those games, but they only won one of them, while they didn’t score more than twice against any of those opponents.

In addition, Wimbledon have done an excellent job of competing on the road of late, as they’ve avoided defeat in each of their last six travelling matches, four of which they’ve won. During that time, the Dons have gone away and kept clean sheets against a couple of decent sides such as Shrewsbury and Oxford. Neither of those teams are as threatening as Luton, though the fact that Wimbledon have conceded in just two of their last six on the road bodes well ahead of Tuesday’s trip to Kenilworth Road.

From a betting point of view, it’s easy to side, though they might not find it easy to run away with this one. At the prices, ‘Luton to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ looks to be the best option. Quite simply, the Hatters, who’ve scored considerably more goals and who average far more expected goals for at home than Wimbledon do on the road, have the overall quality to win this game, there can be no denying that. That said, against teams who’ve tried to make life tough, Tuesday’s hosts have struggled to score loads of goals of late.

In summary, against a Wimbledon side known for being involved in low-scoring games on the road, the Hatters are fancied to work hard for a modest victory.