Luton Town vs Bristol Rovers Predictions

Despite having the perfect opportunity to register a much-needed win when taking on a struggling Plymouth side at home last weekend, Bristol Rovers failed to capitalise. It’s now four league games since Saturday’s visit got their heads in front, so the Pirates will be looking to regain the winning thread when they visit Luton at Kenilworth Road on Saturday afternoon.

Luton did fail to take anything back from Keepmoat Stadium with them last weekend, though the Hatters remain in a favourable position. Having come up from League Two at the end of last season, Luton have acquitted themselves well in League One this campaign. Nathan Jones’ men haven’t set the world alight, but they’ve been useful in almost every area, as their respectable league standing, coupled with results, would suggest.

As well as picking up some pleasing results, the underlying numbers also tell us that Luton are no mugs. The Hatters currently rank sixth in terms of expected goals against, while they sit inside the top half in terms of expected goal difference.

Unlike Luton, Rovers are struggling massively, or at least that’s what the league table would suggest, though in actual reality it appears that Darrell Clarke’s men are constantly falling victim to bad luck.

The performances of Rovers have rarely been as poor as their results have suggested, while the underlying numbers suggest that they ought to be far higher up the table. In terms of expected goals for, Saturday’s visitors rank fifth, while only Barnsley have conceded less expected goals. Expected goals are certainly not everything, and it is of course important to get the ball in the net, but they do at least tell us that Bristol Rovers have been hard done by. If the table was to be drawn up according to expected goal difference, then Clarke’s men would be as high as second.

Based on their recent results, Rovers are hard to fancy at present, though if we take their actual performances into account, alongside the prices on offer here, it becomes very easy to make a case for the visitors, whose luck must change sooner or later, especially if they continue to defend and attack as they have done.

As mentioned above, Luton have held their own this season, but their efforts haven’t quite been impressive enough to think that they merit odds-on favouritism ahead of this match, even on their own patch. In terms of creativity, Bristol Rovers have been one of the best sides in the division, while they’ve also given less away than most teams. With that in mind, siding with the visitors at a price that is surely too big, with the insurance that ‘Draw No Bet’ provides, represents a nice slice of value.