Luton Town vs Burton Albion Predictions

They may have made a reasonably inauspicious start to the campaign, but Luton have well and truly hit their stride over the last few months. Nathan Jones’ men continue to see off all comers and are now sat in a lofty 2^nd position, just four points behind the league leaders. Having won their last six league matches, the Hatters aren’t likely to be lacking in confidence when they welcome Burton to Kenilworth Road on Saturday afternoon.

Before the season started, people may have doubted Luton’s ability to come into League One and challenge for promotion at the first time, though any such doubts have almost certainly disappeared by now. The Hatters are currently second in the league and have shown no signs of letting up.

If there’s any team in League One that has made their home ground a fortress, then it’s Luton. Jones’s men remain unbeaten on their own patch and have simply been blowing teams away for fun. Not only have the Hatters accumulated more points at home than other team in the division, but they’ve scored the most goals, notching an impressive 29 goals in 11 matches at Kenilworth Road.

Not only have Luton scored lots of goals, but they’ve regularly shown up well in terms of expected goals, which tells us that their pleasing results have rarely been down to luck. The Hatters are averaging an excellent 2.07 expected goals for at home this season, while they’ve easily outperformed their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of their last five at home, accumulating a positive difference of +7.39.

Burton did an excellent job of going away to Middlesbrough and winning in the week, putting themselves in the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup as a result, and they’ll certainly be riding high after that victory. However, facing a Luton side that has had a whole week to prepare after a challenging game on Tuesday night isn’t going to be easy.

Aside from the fact that that they played mid-week, Burton haven’t exactly scaled the heights on their travels in League One this season. Nigel Clough’s men have won just twice on the road during the current campaign, while their underlying numbers aren’t great. On average, they’re giving up a terrible 1.96 expected goals, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a trip to face what is one of the most menacing forward lines in the entire Football League at present.

The one thing that both teams have in common is the fact that there’s been no shortage of goals or chances in their matches. At least three goals have been scored in four of Luton’s last five at home, while the same can be said for Burton’s last five on the road. What’s more, there’s been an average of 3.54 expected goals in Burton’s away games this season and an average of 3.19 in Luton’s home matches. If we consider this in conjunction with the prices on offer, then it’s very easy to feel that ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ offers a slice of value at the current prices.