Numancia vs Alcorcon Predictions

Having reached the play-offs last season, Numancia would’ve fancied themselves to do well this campaign, though things have well and truly gone awry at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos. Instead of challenging towards the top of the table, Saturday’s hosts find themselves just a point above the drop-zone. Fortunately, they gained a valuable point last time out, while there is still time for them to ensure that they’re playing in the second division next season.

It’s certainly not been a season to remember for Numancia, though they come into this game off the back of an excellent defensive display last time out, while they have at least played their best football at home. Not only did Aritz López Garai’s men keep a clean sheet away against Albacete, who have the fourth best home record in the division, last time out, but they restricted their hosts to very few scoring opportunities, as they conceded just 0.39 expected goals. A repeat of that defensive effort on Saturday would likely see Numancia pick up another big result.

Results haven’t always gone their way, though it’s fair to say that Numancia have been tough to beat at home in recent times. Since the turn of the year, Saturday’s hosts have lost just three out of nine at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos. None of those three defeats have been by more than a single goal, so the hosts are clearly not easy to get the better of. What’s more, they’ve shipped an average of just 0.96 expected goals at home in 2019, which further supports the notion that they’re reasonably sturdy on their own patch.

While Numancia have performed respectably at home in 2019, Alcorcon have struggled to get going away from home. Saturday’s visitors were victorious in their most recent match, as they got the better of Zaragoza, though that was their first away win since the turn of the year. Cristóbal Parralo’s men have lost six of their eight travelling matches in 2019. Interestingly, they’ve failed to score in five of those eight, while they’ve conceded at least twice in six.

In truth, the visitors have been poor away from home; not only have they lost plenty of games, but they’ve scored a measly average of 0.63 goals on their travels in 2019. Moreover, they’ve shipped an average of 1.88 goals and an average of 1.31 expected goals.

Alcorcon may be above Numancia in the table, though their away-day efforts have been so poor that they’re very easy to oppose. In the betting, ‘Numancia to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out as a solid option. The hosts, who’ve scored an average of 1.67 goals at home in 2019, are backed to score twice on route to victory against a visiting side that has shipped an average of 1.88 goals on the road.