Nurnberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions

Nurnberg had a tricky opener against Hertha Berlin last weekend, but they will have learned a lot from that 1-0 defeat. Der Club looked dangerous enough for a recently promoted side that has lacked any significant investment over the summer – in fact, their 12 shots on goal was the 8th highest of any Bundesliga side from matchday 1 – and it was only a missed penalty from Mikael Ishak that prevented them from clinching a point late on. Ishak was Nurnberg’s second top scorer last season, just behind captain Hanno Behrens (14), and he still looks a threat at a higher level of football. He scored both goals for Nurnberg in their DFB pokal win two weeks back and he should be raring to prove himself again after that miss. Coach Michael Kollner will likely elect to make no changes.

Mainz 05 did well to avoid defeats in both their DFB Pokal match and in their Bundesliga opener. New signing Moussa Niakhate, a center back replacement for Brighton’s newly signed Leon Balogun, found himself sent off after only three minutes on his debut against Bundesliga 2 outfit Erzgebirge Aue in the cup first round, but made his league debut against Stuttgart last weekend (no cross-competition suspension). Mainz won the cup outing 3-1 with just 10 men and Niakhate made amends this weekend by putting in a shift to help the 05ers keep a clean sheet in their 1-0 win at home to Stuttgart. Coach Sandro Schwarz may be looking to make some changes to his attack for the visit to Nurnberg after his side managed just 8 shots on goal in the opener – the joint lowest of any team in the Bundesliga. Romanian midfielder Alexandru Maxim could be brought in for added creativity.

So, how does this one look in terms of betting? Well, there is a notable balance between Nurnberg having the home advantage and better opening 18/19 performances and Mainz being arguably the better side on paper. One thing that stands out in particular though is that both teams have been looking capable of goals. Mainz’s improved scoring form has seen them only fail to score in one of their last seven Bundesliga matches (W4 D1 L2), while Nurnberg have scored at least one goal in seven of their eight competitive home outings in 2018. Now the Bundesliga is a step up for newcomers Nurnberg, but Mainz 05 had one of the worst defensive records in the league last season, and the sale of center backs Leon Balogun to Brighton and Abdou Diallo to Dortmund has meant that they’ve had a complete overhaul at the back, something Nurnberg should be able to take advantage of.

However, though Nurnberg were capable of goals at home – the second highest scorers in the Bundesliga 2 last season – it didn’t always help them to get the results needed at the Max-Morlock-Stadion. Der Club often conceded goals at crucial times and cost themselves results. At the close of the season a massive 71% of thier home outings had seen both teams score. Mainz 05 were far from high flyers on their travels last season, but the Bundesliga veterans should be able to test a newly promoted side that are still finding their feet. Nurnberg have a strong head-to-head record at home to Mainz, losing in just two of the 15 meetings against them there since 1994 (W6 D7 L2), so we’re drawn toward seeing this one end deadlocked. Our prediction: a 1-1 draw.